End of July Tracking: Real Economic Indicators

• Read the full memo:

Overview

Monthly tracking from Citizen Opinion shows troubling trends in the public’s experience, perceptions and conclusions.  Virtually every personal measure has returned to the lowest point on our seven months of tracking and macro-expectations have darkened too. These shifts coincide with news in July of slower job growth, persistently high unemployment and weaker than expected 2^nd quarter GNP growth.

These darkening perceptions have consequences: Democrats are lagging further behind Republicans on which party can best deal with the economy.

• Over a third, 35 percent, say the economy will get worse and another 25 percent say it is at the bottom but has not gotten any better. That leaves just 35 percent who say it is improving, down 10 points since April.

• Only 16 percent give a warm rating to the economy, the lowest level since March. It had been hovering at 20 percent or better since then.

• Just over three-in-ten give a cool rating to their personal finances, the worst such rating in this tracking since early 2009.

• Real economic indicators on job loss, wage cuts and problems with home payments have all worsened.