Subscribe Analysis:
Pitched Battles Over Economy, Health Care and Energy
The closest state during the 2008 presidential election, Missouri shows early signs of opportunity for Democrats to pick up the senate seat currently held by Republican Kit Bond. A new Democracy Corps survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan leading Republican Congressman Roy Blunt 53 to 44 percent and leading former Treasurer Sarah Steelman 54 to 42 percent.[1]
After voters hear profiles of each candidate, Carnahan maintains a 7-point advantage over Steelman and a 9-point advantage over Blunt. After attacks on each candidate, Carnahan remains above 50 percent against both Republicans, and leads Blunt by 7 and Steelman by 6. At this early and uncertain stage, Carnahan starts off the contest with a strong personal and professional standing that puts her in a position to defeat either potential opponent. At the same time, it appears as if Steelman may be the tougher foe with a stronger profile than Blunt and the potential to run a fresh outsider candidacy that Blunt cannot offer.
President Obama provides a slight boost to Carnahan, even in a state he failed to carry, with a 56 percent job approval rating (compared to 58 percent nationally)[2] and voters preferring, by a 49 to 40 percent margin, a senator who will mostly support Obama’s agenda to get things done rather than one who will mostly oppose his agenda to provide balance.
While the strength of the candidates will be critical, the senate campaign will also take place amidst pitched battles on President Obama’s top priorities – the economy, health care and energy. Voters divide evenly on the economic debate and the health care debate, while giving the President’s position an 18-point advantage on energy.
Advantage Carnahan
Robin Carnahan starts her campaign for U.S. Senate well-known and highly regarded. She enjoys a better than 2:1 favorable-unfavorable ratio (46 percent favorable – 22 percent unfavorable with 87 percent name identification) and 60 percent of voters approve of the job she’s doing as Secretary of State while just 21 percent disapprove.
Among white voters, older women represent one of Carnahan’s strongest electoral blocs (49 – 20 percent favorable-unfavorable, 63 percent job approval). While white older women are more Democratic than their younger or male counterparts, women candidates often underperform with older women. But, among this group, Carnahan overperforms partisanship by a net of 16 points when matched against Blunt and 20 points when matched against Steelman – more than she does in any other white gender/age subgroup.
Roy Blunt brings mediocre ratings to the campaign with a 33 – 27 percent favorable-unfavorable rating despite 82 percent name identification. Sarah Steelman is not yet defined to a large segment of the electorate. Just 51 percent can identify despite a previous stint holding statewide office and a failed bid for Governor last year. Overall, voters offer her a 22 – 13 percent favorable-unfavorable rating.
As the chart below shows, Carnahan leads both opponents in an initial vote matchup:
- It is telling that Steelman initially performs nearly as well as Blunt, despite having a name identification 30 points lower. This speaks to Blunt’s weakness as a candidate.
- Carnahan’s base appears very solid, as she leads Blunt 95 to 5 percent and Steelman 96 to 3 percent among Democrats. The Republican-leaning independent bloc gives Carnahan a slight edge against Blunt, 49 to 45 percent, and a 52 to 39 percent advantage over Steelman.
- Carnahan’s leads emerge from her significant overperformance with women and less educated voters. Among women, Carnahan leads Blunt by 18 points and Steelman by 24, while a generic Democrat defeats a generic Republican by just 3 points. Among voters with only a high school education, Carnahan leads by 18 against Blunt and by 17 against Steelman, whereas a generic Democrat leads by just 2 points.
Steelman Potentially Tougher Challenger
As the table below shows, Carnahan maintains advantages over both Republicans as the race unfolds, first with positive profiles and then after attacks. However, the race does narrow, particularly against Steelman.
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Table1: Carnahan – Blunt and Carnahan – Steelman Vote Progression |
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|
InitialVote |
Post-Positives |
Post-Attacks |
|
Carnahan |
53 |
53 |
52 |
|
Blunt |
44 |
45 |
45 |
|
Carnahan– Blunt |
+9 |
+7 |
+7 |
|
Carnahan |
54 |
52 |
51 |
|
Steelman |
42 |
45 |
45 |
|
Carnahan– Steelman |
+12 |
+7 |
+6 |
Steelman looks like the tougher candidate. In addition to having more success in narrowing the race against Carnahan, her profile tests 7 points better than Blunt’s (68 vs. 61 percent convincing reason to voter for each). The negatives tested against her lack the potency of Blunt’s and she has the potential to run as an outsider. The consummate political insider, Blunt is weighed down by his long history of voting the Republican Party line, his numerous votes to give himself pay raises while opposing a minimum wage increase, and his leading support for the TARP bailout.
The Big Debates: Economy, Health Care, Energy
Economic Debate Draws to a Tie
Missouri voters stand evenly divided on the economic debate before the country with 49 percent agreeing that the Obama Administration is making the right decisions to get our economy moving while an equal share believe the Obama Administration is spending too much, borrowing too much and taxing too much, as Republicans assert.
When a debate over the President’s economic recovery plan is described in some detail and put in the context of a senate race between Carnahan and Blunt, voters remain nearly deadlocked with a marginal advantage for Carnahan.
Health Care Debate Evenly Divided
Voters split on an outline of a potential health care plan from President Obama after hearing detailed (and policy-heavy) arguments for and against it, as the following chart illustrates. The opposition’s arguments about doctor choice and access, coverage for illegal immigrants and government-controlled decisions can erode support for Obama’s nascent health care proposal if proponents don’t take steps to hedge off these specious arguments and develop more effective messaging in favor of reform.
After hearing these arguments, independents oppose the proposal 41 to 56 percent and opposition in southern Missouri (22-point margin against it) is not offset by the 3-point margin supporting the proposal in the St. Louis market. Winning this debate in Missouri will require the Administration to better appeal to non-college educated women who support it by a marginal 1-point margin despite identifying as Democrats over Republicans by 12 points, and to seniors who support the proposal by just 5 points despite identifying as Democrats over Republicans by 17 points.
Strong Support for Clean Energy Proposal
While the energy debate rages on in Washington, voters in Missouri favor a plan based on President Obama’s approach by 18 points, 57 to 39 percent, after proponents and opponents air their arguments.
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In sum, Robin Carnahan offers Democrats a big opportunity to win the open senate seat in Missouri, giving the state two Democratic women senators. The campaign will take place amidst big debates in the country – on the economy, health care and energy – with much left in the balance of how those debates are defined for voters. But the strength of the candidates will also prove critical. Carnahan begins the cycle with strong standing despite running in a state that is split down the middle in partisan terms. On the Republican side, Blunt’s standing is merely mediocre while Steelman shows more potential to present Carnahan with a tougher challenge.
