strategy and research | May 14, 2009
| Read the full memo: |  |
The closest state during the 2008 presidential election, Missouri shows early signs of opportunity for Democrats to pick up the senate seat currently held by Republican Kit Bond. A new Democracy Corps survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan leading Republican Congressman Roy Blunt 53 to 44 percent and leading former Treasurer Sarah Steelman 54 to 42 percent.
At this early and uncertain stage, Carnahan starts off the contest with a strong personal and professional standing that puts her in a position to defeat either potential opponent. At the same time, it appears as if Steelman may be the tougher foe with a stronger profile than Blunt and the potential to run a fresh outsider candidacy that Blunt cannot offer.
President Obama provides a slight boost to Carnahan, even in a state he failed to carry, with a 56 percent job approval rating (compared to 58 percent nationally) and voters preferring, by a 49 to 40 percent margin, a senator who will mostly support Obama’s agenda to get things done rather than one who will mostly oppose his agenda to provide balance.
This report is based a Democracy Corps survey of 800 likely voters in Missouri conducted April 28 – 30, 2009. The survey is subject to a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.
Robin Carnahan offers Democrats a big opportunity to win the open senate seat in Missouri, giving the state two Democratic women senators. The campaign will take place amidst big debates in the country – on the economy, health care and energy – with much left in the balance of how those debates are defined for voters. But the strength of the candidates will also prove critical. Carnahan begins the cycle with strong standing despite running in a state that is split down the middle in partisan terms. On the Republican side, Blunt’s standing is merely mediocre while Steelman shows more potential to present Carnahan with a tougher challenge.
Subscribe