strategy and research | November 3, 2008
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The final national survey from Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner shows Obama with a stable and decisive lead in the race for president. But there is much more going on that will likely produce an even bigger outcome. The structure of Obama’s support is untouched by the closing campaign, with considerable evidence of rising confidence in Obama over McCain on taxes, the economy and the financial crisis that are themselves growing more central in predicting the vote. With surging enthusiasm and solidity of Obama’s voters and a growing partisan advantage impacting races at all levels, more than a few barriers will likely be broken on November 4th.
Obama is ahead in the race for president in our last poll that was conducted Thursday night, Saturday morning and Sunday night with 1,000 likely voters nationwide by a 7-point margin: 51 to 44 percent, with 3 percent undecided and 4 percent voting for 3rd parties (Nader at 2 percent and Barr at 1 percent).
We project, however, when all is said and done that Obama will lead 53 to 44 percent, with 3 percent for 3rd party candidates.
The confidence in Obama’s vote tomorrow lies in some trends in the most recent poll and trends that have consolidated over the last week. There is immense stability here, but it is important to emphasize, we found no movement to McCain on almost any key indicator. Let us underscore the closing trends that could impact the eventual margin and the position of Democrats at all levels.
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