Subscribe Analysis:
Youth for the Win!
The last six weeks saw the inauguration of a serious, McCain-sponsored offensive against Barack Obama, as well as an effort in the Obama campaign to “moderate” their candidate. And, at least among youth, the impact of these events has been notably modest. While we see some movement in Obama’s support among young people of color growing even stronger and softening a bit among white youth, overall this has been a period of remarkable political stability. Obama consolidated some of the gains we saw in the June survey and still posts a convincing 27-point margin (60 – 33 percent) over McCain.
John McCain recovers somewhat from his post-primary nadir among youth, arguably highlighting a political price for the progressive failure so far to really define this candidate, but in their enthusiasm for Obama and their commitment to vote, young people have not changed. Most indicators still suggest both a record turn out and margin in November.
Locking this down means engaging youth more forcefully on the economy.
In our report a year ago, we argued that speaking to youth on the economy was the key to expanding this vote. As a more economically vulnerable demographic group—often competing for entry-level jobs with limited benefits, most surviving on a single income—young people then represented a “canary in a coal mine” of sorts for the rest of the electorate, previewing a broader concern over the economy. In our survey last month, we argued that targeting McCain’s economic proposals—and tying McCain to Bush—were the keys to further poisoning young people’s perceptions of this incumbent.
In this survey, we explore more directly the current economic stress of America’s youth. Nearly half are a missed pay-check away from having to borrow money. Three-quarters owe some manner of debt, including a third who owe student loans. And one in five has had a utility cut off for failure to pay a bill.
Obama Holds Gains
From the pre-nomination period (April) to the immediate post-nomination period (June), Obama expanded his lead among young people from 19 points to 27 points. This survey shows that lead stabilized, as Obama currently dominates McCain 60 – 33 percent among young people. Historically, this lead exceeds Kerry’s margin among youth (54 – 45 percent) and reflects the Democratic Congressional margin in 2006.
Obama’s margin does not change much among likely voters (61 – 34 percent). We see some polarization along racial lines, as white youth withdraw somewhat (from a 51 – 42 percent Obama lead to a 46 – 45 statistical tie) while young people of color deliver an even higher margin (now 80 percent Obama, up from 74 percent) for this historic candidacy. More specific problems emerge among white men and white Democrats, as well as voters in the Central and West regions, where much of the anti-Obama television has occurred. Most of these losses are modest and do not yet represent a significant trend given the overall stability of Obama’s standing among youth.
Young people under significant economic stress clearly look for alternatives to this Republican economy. Obama’s margin balloons to 41 percent among young people with four or more forms of debt (student loans, credit cards, medical bills, etc.) and to 54 percent among voters facing a heavy financial stress. Some of this trend, of course, reflects a more Democratic outlook among more lower income young people, but Obama’s margin exceeds Democratic expectations among financially stressed youth; among financially clear young people, Obama’s margin just meets Democratic expectations.
McCain Let Up Off the Mat, Obama Remains Strong
John McCain posts a very slight recovery in favorability among young people. This reflects, in part, some improvement in the Republican brand which remains severely damaged, but not quite as disastrous as was the case in July. Both the favorability ratings for Bush and for the Republican Party show some murmurs of life after collapsing in our last survey. It is also at least arguable that progressives are missing their opportunity to define the Republican candidate.
Overall, John McCain’s favorability scores improve from 30 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable to 34 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable, an 8-point net swing. It is important to remember that McCain once enjoyed reasonably strong 35 favorable, 37 percent unfavorable marks in April, so the “improvement” here is only relative to his appalling performance in the July survey. Still, this improvement comes among both Democrats and Independents (not among, interestingly, Republicans) and among white youth, he moves to even favorable (41 percent) and unfavorable (40 percent) marks.
Obama’s are steady at 56 percent favorable, 34 percent unfavorable, though among white youth, he slips from 45 – 37 percent favorable to 45 – 44 percent favorable.
Youth Under Economic Stress
Nearly half (47 percent) say they are one paycheck away from having to borrow money from credit cards or from their parents to make ends meet. Even among Republicans (47 percent), full-time workers (46 percent), white college educated youth (42 percent) and married young people (41 percent), there emerges considerable economic instability.
Much of the problem is rooted in debt. All told, 76 percent of young people hold some type of debt and a third (32 percent) are still paying off their student loans. While young people who face severe economic crises such as having their utilities cut off or losing credit, etc. remain a minority, seven in ten young people at least know someone close to the financial brink.
Gas prices are, of course, a major concern among young people. In a recent survey of youth that GQR conducted for Qvisory, young people identified gas prices as their leading financial concern. This is also an issue where McCain and Republicans have, at least, an argument. Young people in this survey divide evenly on whether drilling for coastal oil is a good idea (44 percent say this drilling will hurt the environment and not help with gas prices; 44 percent say it is a good idea and will decrease gas prices). Even among liberal Democrats, only 51 percent support the environmental position here. Among young people facing a heavy financial burden—an overwhelmingly Democratic group (58 percent Democratic, just 16 percent Republican)—nearly 48 percent believe drilling in coastal regions is a good idea.
Progressives need to focus more on how young people experience the economy directly. Generally speaking, young people do not hear the kind of economic policies that can make a real difference in their lives. The price of gas issue is but one example. It is also about debt, about the policies that allow them to purchase affordable health care and about opportunities for good paying, entry level jobs.
Obama Messaging
There is no doubt that Obama appeals to this generation of voters, but there has been relatively little exploration of why young people like Obama and what they want to hear from him. Obama is closer in age to young people and his ethnicity better reflects the diversity of this generation. He also generally shares the more progressive political outlook of young people. Young people voted Democratic well before they ever heard of Obama. The candidate’s soaring speeches and calls for change also inspire young people. But in the end, it is not rhetoric or even relative youth that young people want to see out of this candidacy, but very tactile change, specifically changes in the economy.
Given the financial vulnerability of this population, it is not surprising to see pro-Obama arguments focused on the economy finding the most traction in this survey. This messaging takes pains to speak to the specific economic concerns of young people, including debt, the cost of education and finding entry-level jobs with decent salaries and benefits. A health care argument that includes specific proposals for young people—such as allowing them to continue on their parents’ insurance—also resonates, as does an argument about gas prices. This latter argument needs to be sharpened, but it is interesting that a gas argument is (arguably) distracted by the global warming issue and loses some of its intensity. Arguments that are more rhetorical in nature fall short.
Exploring arguments in both this survey (pro-Obama) and the last survey (anti-McCain), we can develop a quick message box that summarizes major points of contrast between these two candidates. Notably, this economic narrative dominates both the positive outreach among youth, as well as the attack on McCain.
| Obama Positive | McCain Hits |
| • Obama says too many young people are struggling just to get by; he will fight for policies that help young people by reducing the burden of debt, creating jobs with good salaries and benefits and affordable health care. | • Despite the economic problems young people face, McCain opposes the very programs that can help young people get by, like education, health care and housing assistance. |
| • Obama will reform health care, lowering costs, making it easier for younger workers to get health insurance and allowing young people to continue on their parents’ insurance plans. | • McCain’s support of the Bush agenda will burden generations to come; from the war, to the economy, to the national debt, today’s young people will inherit huge problems from the Republican leadership. |
| • Obama will fight for new energy policies to make us energy independent, increase jobs and lower the price of gas; he will end tax breaks for big oil and invest in clean, renewable sources of energy, increase American oil production, crack down on oil speculators and price gougers. | • McCain supports giving Bush a blank check in Iraq, nearly $10 billion a month, money that could be used investing in the next generation, building schools, investing in alternative energy and creating jobs. |
Conclusion
Obama has survived McCain’s initial blast and accusations of “moving to the center” with little apparent damage among youth. Electorally, the gains we saw in the last wave of research have held and currently reflect historical Democratic gains in the youth vote.
Despite the apparent stability in the vote, most national campaigns are not static by nature; a number of big things, a gaffe, a debate, an external event, can change things in hurry. The softness we see in Obama’s white support could be a blip or could be portent.
Maintaining or even expanding the youth vote means speaking to their biggest issue—their real financial challenges. Arguably, neither Obama nor McCain has directly addressed their economic concerns in a fashion that meets young people where they are in their lives. It is about holding McCain accountable for the current economy (see last Youth For The Win report) and providing an alternative that can have a direct impact on their lives and economic standing. In our next report, we will look specifically at what young people believe is at stake in this election and what they hope to change in this country.
