strategy and research | August 4, 2008
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Based on over 3,000 interviews conducted with likely voters throughout the nation in the last month and a half, this analysis shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 4 points. Digging deeper into the data, we identify the groups where Obama is currently overperforming as well as the groups with which he has an opportunity to improve his performance.
In our previous memo, “The Obama Gap,” we first identified the demographics where Obama was strongest and the groups with which he most struggled. This report updates our previous analysis and reassesses Obama’s standing now that the general election is in full swing. Specifically, we identify the groups where Obama is underperforming John Kerry’s performance in 2004 or Congressional Democrats’ performance in 2006. Obviously, Obama’s goal is to run better than Kerry did, but the Democrats’ 2006 performance provides a useful point of comparison for any aspirations of replicating the wave election of two years ago.
In this memo, Stan Greenberg, James Carville and Andrew Baumann examine the different kinds of voters Obama is strongest and weakest with and break down in which groups Obama has the potential to win more votes.
This targeting memo for the general election will identify first the groups where Obama is doing well and shaping the image of the current coalition of support, but then will focus on groups where he is underperforming relative to history and other Democrats, and where there are signs of movement and receptivity. Finally, the memo will identify underperforming groups, where Obama is not making gains, that pose special challenges. This is to help progressive groups and those working for change to target their work most effectively.
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