strategy and research | July 9, 2008
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Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner completed a special national survey of 2,000 likely voters that shows Barack Obama with a 4-point lead over John McCain in the race for president (49 to 45 percent). Obama has diminished some of the polarization around his image and provided key reassurances that have more voters saying he “has what it takes to be president.” Though this progress has been accompanied by some diminished enthusiasm for the presumptive Democratic nominee and only small gains among independent voters, Obama seems well-positioned to engage voters, consolidate Democrats and win over independents.
In this report, Stan Greenberg, James Carville and Ana Iparraguirre analyze the challenge that Obama faces in this new phase of the campaign as he will have to provide important reassurance on his biography, values and moderation, while offering a sense of purpose, direction and choice at a time of deepening crisis and demand for change.
Barack Obama has slowly moved up to a 4-point lead over John McCain in the race for president (49 to 45 percent) in this special 2,000-sample Democracy Corps survey, a margin consistent with the most recent national poll estimates. In an important step following a difficult primary, he has consolidated about half the Democrats he will need to match earlier presidential runs. He achieved that by diminishing some of the polarization around his image and providing key reassurances that have more voters saying he “has what it takes to be president.” There is every reason to believe that Obama will continue to elevate his support as he chooses a vice-presidential nominee and as he more boldly defines the choice in the election.
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