strategy and research | May 29, 2008
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Democracy Corps completed a national survey of 1,014 likely voters that shows both Obama and Clinton emerging ahead of McCain in a close race for the White House. The survey, conducted May 13-15, shows that this is a very close race, but Obama’s work is made easier by the emerging partisan trends, issues, desire for leadership and choice before voters.
In their comprehensive analysis of the survey, Stan Greenberg and Ana Iparraguirre highlight the developments that are giving this race definition at this pivotal point. The Republican Party’s faltering popularity, an electorate focused on change and Democrats’ advantage on the economy, Iraq and government reform are framing the choice in 2008.
As the Democratic nomination contest comes to an end and candidates shift their focus to the general election, both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are emerging comparably ahead of John McCain in a close race for the White House. This memo will focus on Obama. He holds a 2-point lead in our survey,[1] which is just under the 5-point lead he has in the average of this month’s public polling as well as our recent poll done with Public Opinion Strategies for NPR. [2] But this is a real race. Obama’s vote has not risen above 48 percent and the intensity of support and opposition for each candidate is very similar.
May 13-15, 2008; 1014 likely voters
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