At President Obama’s recent health care summit, Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and other Republicans breathlessly touted an “average” of recent public polls showing large majorities opposing health care reform. McConnell’s polling average was dubious to begin with, but he was also getting well ahead of himself.[i] In fact, a flurry of recent polls show support for health care reform slowly but surely on the rise. A new survey from The Economist/YouGov released yesterday shows majority supporting passage of reform for the first time since December.[ii] Moreover, recent polls that dig deeper than the topline numbers demonstrate even more support for passage of reform, with the most recent Ipsos survey showing a majority of Americans either supporting the current reform option or hoping for an even stronger reform package.
Momentum is growing for passage of health care reform, and so is the threat to Republicans because of their continued obstructionism.
In the past week at least seven prominent outside-the-Beltway Republicans have expressed the need for congressional Republicans to put partisan politics aside and work with President Obama and Democrats to pass major reform this year. These Republican “wise men” are echoing the sentiments of the nation as a whole. Recent public polls show Americans weary of both the status quo in health care and Republican obstructionism: overwhelming majorities say Republicans lack ideas and put politics ahead of the nation’s needs.
After nearly a year of remarkably consistent numbers in key metrics of the country’s political environment, we are seeing significant movement as rapidly deteriorating attitudes toward the economy drive ratings of the country’s direction, consumer confidence, and President Bush’s job approval marks to new lows. Approval of Congress has also fallen, but the anger is not directed at the “Democratic Congress” which has seen a decline in its negatives this year – in fact, the country’s profound change dynamic has resulted in the massive Democratic advantage in the generic congressional ballot growing even larger in March.
Despite recent coverage of shifting attitudes toward the war in Iraq and the Democratic Congress, the latest public polls show the country’s political environment remains fundamentally unchanged, with President Bush and Republicans in Congress still deeply unpopular and Democrats maintaining a significant electoral advantage at the congressional level one year before the next election. Broad disapproval of Congress as an institution reflects the massive change dynamic still driving the electorate and is not directed at the new Democratic leadership.
Three new surveys released immediately prior to the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks and the progress reports of Gen. Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker show that the country’s political environment remains essentially unchanged – bad news for the White House and congressional Republicans. Most important to the current moment, attitudes on Iraq are unmoved and voters indicate little receptivity to reports of progress from Petraeus and the Bush administration. The wealth of data on Iraq in these new polls reveals a great deal about public attitudes on Iraq and how inflexible they are. Key findings include a clear sense that the surge is not working, skepticism of the Petraeus report, unwavering support for withdrawal and a clear deadline, and a clear belief that the war in Iraq is not making us safer.
The latest public polls reveal a political environment whose broad contours remain fixed — a deeply unpopular president, broad pessimism about the direction of the country and the political process, a significant electoral advantage for Democrats, and a growing demand to bring our troops home from a war in Iraq that is viewed as a mistake by an increasingly large majority of Americans. Within this context, we see President Bush’s approval marks reaching new lows, but even his approval now exceeds that of the Congress. Americans still view Democrats more favorably and hold out some optimism for the Democratic majority in Congress, but they believe that Democrats have failed to deliver the change they promised. Democrats maintain a double-digit margin in a generic congressional match-up, but this advantage is now more a reflection of Republican weakness than Democratic strength.
As the 100-day mark of the new Democratic Congress has passed and a series of events from Iraq to Imus and Gonzales to Virginia Tech have dominated the headlines, the basic framework of the national political environment remains unchanged — broad pessimism for the country’s direction, record disapproval of Bush and the Republicans, and strong political and electoral advantages for Democrats in Congress. This month’s polls, however, do offer some important insight into attitudes toward the Democratic Congress. Voters remain optimistic about the new majority and prefer them over Bush on all issues – particularly Iraq – while at the same time reminding Democrats that they have not yet delivered the changes they promised and demanding more action on Iraq, immigration, government reform, and the economy.
As the 4-year anniversary of the invasion of Iraq approaches, we find the war in Iraq dominating a political environment that has really solidified since the historic elections of 2006. This environment is characterized by a deeply pessimistic mood driven by Iraq, as well as concerns about health care and immigration. Another month of polls brings another record low approval mark for Bush. Majorities of Americans disapprove of Bush’s performance and favor Democrats in Congress over Bush on every issue tested in every poll. And broad opposition to his escalation in Iraq remains as fewer Americans see any hope for a true ‘victory’ in Iraq and concern about a renewed Taliban presence in Afghanistan increases the commitment to that conflict.
Despite a prime time address to the nation on Iraq and the annual State of the Union, President Bush’s political standing continues to erode in the latest public polls. Iraq is driving both the national political environment and the President’s continuing decline in public approval, and not even small but sustained gains in ratings of the economy and consumer confidence have provided any help to Bush. Democrats, on the other hand, have seen public approval spike since the election, and the early success and broad popularity of their legislative agenda has helped to reinforce those gains.
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