Obama’s Speech Moves Swing Voters to Support Reform

Overview

Obama’s Speech Moves Swing Voters to Support Reform

With his speech before Congress and the nation tonight, Barack Obama was effective in cutting through the misinformation and partisan bickering over health care and reaching swing voters, many of whom entered the evening harboring real skepticism about his plan. Obama succeeded in reassuring voters of all political stripes on some of their biggest concerns about reform while also energizing supporters and avoiding the kind of polarization that could drive away independents and Republicans. Moreover, the reaction of Republicans in the audience, including the heckling of the president by Rep. Joe Wilson, generated a strong backlash among focus group participants who expressed deep frustration with Republicans for putting partisan politics ahead of solving the nations’ problems.

Democracy Corps conducted dial testing of the speech with 50 independent and weak partisan voters in Denver, Colorado, followed by focus groups with voters whose support for Obama’s health care plan increased after seeing the speech. The dial group participants were evenly divided among those who initially supported and initially opposed the plan, with an almost equal division between Obama and McCain voters.

These swing voters reacted strongly to Obama’s message. Support for Obama’s plan jumped 20 points, from 46 percent before the speech to 66 percent after. Importantly, Obama also achieved one of his principal goals of boosting the intensity of support. Prior to the speech, just 2 percent of these swing voters supported the plan strongly while 26 percent opposed it strongly; by the end of the evening those numbers were virtually reversed, with 28 percent supporting the plan strongly against just 8 percent strongly opposed. The president was also extremely successful in moving the needle on areas where progressives have struggled over the last few months, making great strides in reassuring voters on issues like the deficits and taxes, seniors and Medicare, choice and control, competition and costs, and government intervention.

Obama also made great progress in reestablishing that he is “on your side” – one of the traits our polling has consistently shown to be a key driver of his overall approval – with the percentage saying this describes Obama “well” jumping from 50 to 72 percent.

Significantly, Obama’s speech played well across the political spectrum. Traditionally, voters from the opposite party of the president tend to score consistently low and to create huge partisan divides in these dial tests. That was not the case with Obama’s speech. With just a few exceptions, Republicans held solidly around 50 and even exceeded 70 percent favorability during parts of the president’s speech, giving particularly high scores to Obama’s remarks on not adding a penny to the deficit, creating a health care exchange, protecting Medicare, and reforming medical malpractice. While Republicans in the audience may have viewed this as a partisan speech, those outside of the room clearly did not.

Several sections of the speech stood out for their resonance across party lines. Voters, especially independents, reacted strongly to Obama’s determination to end the partisanship on both sides and to build on the current system to get reform done, with the dials spiking when he proclaimed that “now is the season for action.” Obama’s call to hold insurance companies accountable, particularly with his pledge to end the practices of rescission and denying coverage for pre-existing conditions and to implement insurance exchanges, received some of the highest marks of the night, with the dials topping 80.

Two focus groups were conducted among select participants following the speech – one among those who switched from opposing Obama’s plan before the speech to supporting it after, and one among those whose support shifted from weak to strong. Among those who shifted from opposition to support, there was consensus that Obama gave a powerful and compelling speech that hit on many key issues. While they continued to express skepticism about cost and the ability to execute such widespread change at once, they repeatedly cited the reassurances offered by Obama – the plan pays for itself and will not increase the deficit, no coverage for illegal immigrants, medical malpractice reform, and his sharp rebuke on death panels – as the parts of the speech which stood out most to them. They also highlighted the end of lost coverage for pre-existing conditions or serious illnesses as critical and expressed confidence that his plan will be able to control costs to some degree. More than anything, they shared a belief that something must be done and that a failure to deliver any reform represents a victory for the insurance companies and other special interests who profit most from the status quo.

One of the most striking aspects of tonight’s speech was the large increase in people who went from “somewhat supporting” to “strongly supporting” the Obama health care plan. In our focus group discussion, these voters agreed that the president did an excellent job of explaining his priorities and refuting the horror stories they have been hearing from the media or from email chains. They were moved by the president’s determination on such a difficult and critical issue, and they viewed him as both principled and reaching out to Republicans to achieve reform. Once again, the bottom line for these voters is that we must get something done on health care, and they were pleased that Obama shared their sense of urgency and determination. This was a sharp contrast from what they saw in Republicans, whose reactions during the speech angered these voters. Instead of trying to be constructive and work with the president, the Republicans were seen as simply playing partisan politics and trying to derail the president for political reasons. Participants want change and clearly stated they will vote against people who stand in the way of a president who is doing everything he can to work with both parties and reform a broken health care system.

The full list of pre- and post-speech measures and the entire video of the speech with the dial test results in real time can be viewed at http://www.democracycorps.com.