A plurality support President Obama and the Democrats’ plan for reform without any description, rising to 50 percent when it is described, even when financed by Medicare cuts and new taxes. Support for reform in the country has held up over the last three weeks, despite concerted Republican attacks on the “government takeover” of health care and the high costs of reform, suggesting the voters’ determination to find out whether the promise is real.

Still supporters are more tentative than opponents and one in five say they need more information before they support the plan. On the critical issue of whether your family will be helped or hurt by the plan, the country is split down the middle.

Proponents and opponents of reform will be battling for the 35 percent of the electorate who are not satisfied with the health insurance system but satisfied with their personal insurance. These voters are “satisfied” with their personal care but are not happy about having traded off wages or gotten locked into a job because of health care, so they are nervous about change, but they want it. In this analysis we offer five strategic recommendations to buttress and deepen support for health care reform:

1. Voters need to hear clearly what changes health care reform will bring. Never losing health insurance when you lose a job or get sick, power shifted from insurance companies to people, reduced costs for you and your family, business and country.

2. Build a narrative around taking power away from the insurance companies and giving it to people.

3. The president and reform advocates have to explain concretely the changes that will mean lower costs.

4. Show all voters and seniors that there are benefits for them, including prescription drugs.

5. All of these points should be made with the dominant framework that continuing the status quo is unacceptable and unsustainable.

This analysis is based on a national survey of 1,013 2008 voters (890 likely 2010 voters) conducted May 28 through June 1, 2009, a national survey of 1,000 2008 voters (846 likely 2010 voters) was conducted June 19 through 22, 2009, 4 focus groups of swing voters conducted outside Chicago, Illinois, on June 10 and Denver, Colorado, on June 11; and two groups of seniors conducted outside Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on June 15.

When we got these results, Democracy Corps launched into intensive focus groups and a new survey that will be released next week. But we want to underscore some of our key findings now.

• As in 1993, a large majority wants change. Almost 60 percent of likely voters are dissatisfied with the current health care system, and three-quarters say health care should be either completely rebuilt or reformed in major ways.
• The president’s plan is strongly favored. A good majority of those under age 65 — those impacted by reform — favor the Obama plan, and do so strongly, after a descriptive debate of the issue. Still, we begin this battle with only a small majority here, which leaves little cushion once you factor in conservative attacks against a “government takeover,” the not inconsiderable minority among this population who believe government could create more problems, and a rising concern about deficit spending.
• Messages of security play strongly. That no one would ever again lose coverage and no insurance company could drop a consumer or raise rates for pre-existing conditions, health, gender or age are the strongest messages and most emotional factors in the current support. But we cannot expand the majority supporting health care reform without showing how we reduce costs for individuals and how we expand choice.
• Still, people are satisfied with their own insurance. The main reason we have trouble expanding the majority is the three-quarters who say they are “satisfied” with their own insurance plans. Understand, our focus groups are showing they are not satisfied — they have traded off wage increases, stayed in a job rather than leave, paid into a high-deductible plan, and made other compromises so they can have insurance and their choice of doctor when they need it. But that makes those voters who want reform risk averse — they want to confirm key elements in the plan.
• Voters need solid answers to their questions. People really need to know how they will pay less, how the plan will be paid for and how they will have choice. Their presumption is that reform costs more, not less — and so, we have to be doubly diligent, respecting how personal a choice this is for people in very tough times.
• There is little support among seniors. Voters over the age of 65 clearly need to see that there is something in health care reform for them as well.
• Voters are desperate for change — if it is done right. The public is following the debate very closely and are desperate for the changes being discussed, but only if done right and for the right reasons. The president has the ability to explain reform but also to tell the larger story about what this plan means for middle class families and America.

As Congress begins work on its hefty summer schedule, a new survey from Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner shows that President Obama continues to enjoy a strong standing while the Republican brand remains deeply unpopular. Moreover, two of the most high-profile debates in Washington could damage the GOP further by isolating the party from the vast middle of the electorate as Obama’s nomination of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court receives better than two-to-one backing, even after the initial onslaught of Republican attacks against the nominee, and former Vice President Dick Cheney’s popularity falls to an all-time low.

President Obama’s job approval stands at 57 percent among likely voters, virtually unchanged over the last four months and just a point off his all-time high. Meanwhile, the Republican Party sports a net favorability rating of -15 points (30 percent favorable, 45 percent unfavorable). By comparison, the Democratic Party enjoys a relatively strong +8 rating (46 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable). The image gap between the two parties also remains near its all-time high. And in a test of the 2010 congressional vote (using the incumbents’ names), Democrats currently hold a 10-point advantage, a slight increase from their 2008 margin.

Dick Cheney’s persistent visibility does not appear to be helping matters for the Republicans. With a net favorability of -20 (31 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable), the former vice president is at his lowest level of popularity since Democracy Corps first measured it in 1999. Cheney is a deeply divisive figure, popular only with the conservative base of the Republican Party but unpopular with everyone else, including independents (among whom he has net -26 favorability rating) and moderate Republicans. In fact, President Obama (+5) is more popular with moderate Republicans than Cheney (-9). Moreover, by a three-to-one margin (66 to 23 percent) likely voters reject Cheney’s recent statement that he would prefer to see Rush Limbaugh, rather than Colin Powell, set the direction of the GOP. Again, only conservative Republicans side with Cheney, while Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans all strongly prefer Powell. Finally, voters reject Cheney’s recent assault on the president over national security, choosing Obama over Cheney on who “has better ideas to keep the country safe” by a 12-point margin (twice the gap in partisan identification).

Sotomayor’s nomination has created a similar dynamic. By a more than two-to-one margin (56 to 27 percent) likely voters approve of the nomination. This level of support is similar to that enjoyed by John Roberts, and exceeds those held by Harriet Miers and Samuel Alito, when they were nominated to the Court in 2005. More important, once again the base of the Republican Party finds itself at odds with the rest of the electorate. While conservative Republicans strongly disapprove of her nomination, Sotomayor earns at least plurality support from moderate Republicans, independents and Democrats. If Republicans give in to the right-wing activists calling for a bare-knuckled fight against Sotomayor, they run the risk of alienating not only Hispanics and women (about 65 percent of whom approve of the nomination), but the entire electorate outside of their base as well.

This analysis is based on a national survey of 1,013 2008 voters (850 reached via landline, 163 reached via cell), including 890 likely 2010 voters, conducted May 28 through June 1, 2009. Margin of error 3.1 percent.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, in conjunction with Democracy Corps and Campaign for America’s Future conducted a straw poll among registered participants at “America’s Future Now!”, an annual conference of progressive activists from around the country. The poll, measuring preferences on key issues and opinions, has been a feature of the conference for three years in a row.

Poll results show that progressives are energized by President Obama and supportive of his agenda. An overwhelming 90 percent of conference goers approve of the job he is doing, with over half (53 percent) strongly approving. Similarly, President Obama’s personal favorability rating among conference attendees is sky-high as 90 percent of attendees rate the president favorably, including three-quarters who rate him very favorably.

Other key findings:

• While participants found a lot to like in the first 100 days plus, they are very focused on health care as the highest priority: 43 percent say it should be the president’s top priority, with all other responses in the teens or lower. And while the participants strongly support the president and his priorities, 63 percent say they will not support a health care plan without a public option for health insurance, even if that was the only way to get the planned passed.

• While two thirds of conference attendees (66 percent) favor congressional investigations into the practices of the Bush Administration in their handling of suspected terrorist suspects, an even stronger majority (81 percent) would like to see Congress investigate the fraud and excesses of Wall Street that led to the financial crisis.

• Not surprisingly, Rush Limbaugh is incredibly unpopular with participants. Indeed, his favorability rating – with just 3 percent of participants rating him favorably – represents one of the lowest personal thermometer ratings of any poll Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has ever conducted.

• The straw poll also surveyed favorability of key media figures. Jon Stewart bests Stephen Colbert in our favorability battery (with 83 percent of attendees rating Stewart favorably compared to 79 percent who do so for Colbert) and Rachel Maddow is viewed more favorably than Keith Olbermann (with 70 and 68 percent rating Maddow and Olbermann warmly respectively).

Stan Greenberg, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner CEO announced the final results at the conference closing ceremonies on Wednesday.

For the first time in our research, Democrats are at full parity on perceptions of which party would best manage national security, while they have moved far ahead of the GOP on specific challenges such as Afghanistan, Iraq, working with our allies, and improving America’s image abroad.

Nearly two-thirds of likely voters – 64 percent – approve of the job Obama is doing on national security. That is 6 points higher than his already strong overall job approval rating (at 58 percent, the highest we have yet recorded). On other aspects of national security – from Iraq, to Afghanistan, to terrorism, to the president’s foreign diplomacy – the same is true: higher job approval ratings than on the President’s overall job approval.

Given their approval of the president’s performance on foreign affairs, voters flatly reject the claims from former Vice President Cheney and other Republicans that Obama’s policies put America at risk. By nearly a 2 to 1 margin, Americans say that President Obama is doing better, not worse, than his predecessor, George W. Bush, when it comes to national security.

This survey signals a possible generational shift in attitudes that could have broad electoral consequences, depriving Republicans of one of their last remaining advantages just when their image has dropped to an all-time low relative to the Democrats.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Democracy Corps have been conducting special national security polls since 2003.

This analysis is based on a national survey of 1,000 2008 voters including 160 interviewed on cell phones (121 unweighted) and 852 likely 2010 voters (861 unweighted) conducted for Democracy Corps by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, May 10-12, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 percent among 2008 voters and 3.3 among percent likely 2010 voters.

At this early and uncertain stage, Carnahan starts off the contest with a strong personal and professional standing that puts her in a position to defeat either potential opponent. At the same time, it appears as if Steelman may be the tougher foe with a stronger profile than Blunt and the potential to run a fresh outsider candidacy that Blunt cannot offer.

President Obama provides a slight boost to Carnahan, even in a state he failed to carry, with a 56 percent job approval rating (compared to 58 percent nationally) and voters preferring, by a 49 to 40 percent margin, a senator who will mostly support Obama’s agenda to get things done rather than one who will mostly oppose his agenda to provide balance.

This report is based a Democracy Corps survey of 800 likely voters in Missouri conducted April 28 – 30, 2009. The survey is subject to a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation

Democracy Corps co-founder James Carville has released a new book, 40 MORE YEARS: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation.

Every four years Americans hold a presidential election. Somebody wins and somebody loses. That’s life. But 2008 was an anomaly. The election of President Barack Obama is about something far bigger than four or even eight years in the White House. Since 2004, Americans have been witnessing and participating in the emergence of a Democratic majority that will last not four but forty years….

Purchase the book online now: Amazon | Barnes & Noble | and at other great independent bookstores nationwide!

To: Ed Gillespie
Founder, Resurgent Republic

From: Stan Greenberg
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

RE: RESURGENT REPUBLIC

Dear Ed,

Congratulations on forming Resurgent Republic with the goal of replicating “on the right the success Democracy Corps has enjoyed on the left.” Like Democracy Corps, you are promising to become a resource for groups and leaders, enhanced by the public release of credible surveys and focus groups and, indeed, your first survey has been widely discussed and already used by Republican leaders. Well done.

You would probably be surprised if I didn’t have some reactions and advice to offer, as you explicitly state you are “modeled on Democracy Corps.” Given your goal, I am perplexed that your first poll would be so outside the mainstream on partisanship. Your poll gives the Democrats just a 2-point party identification advantage in the country, but other public polls in this period fell between +7 and +16 points – giving the Democrats an average advantage of 11 points. Virtually all your issue debates in the survey would have tilted quite differently had the poll been 9 points more Democratic.

One thing Democracy Corps has tried to do is be very “conservative” – watching very closely to make sure all our choices in survey design are well grounded or tilted against the Democrats, including the choice of “likely voters” that normally favors the Republicans. You have probably noticed that our job approval ratings for George Bush were almost always higher than the average of polls, just as our job approval ratings for Barack Obama are now somewhat lower.

If the Resurgent Republic poll is to be an outlier on partisanship, then I urge you to explain what about your methodology produces it – or simply to note the difference in your public release.

The problem of partisanship pales before the problem of self-deluding bias in question wording that might well contribute to Republicans digging themselves deeper and deeper into a hole…

What is most interesting about the survey is the cluster of reactions people are having to the president as a leader and in his work. He is seen as strong and on people’s side, with good plans and bringing hope to the country. He is seen to be making progress on transparency in government, restoring American respect in the world and dealing with Iraq, and in bringing greater economic fairness with middle class relief. The combination of addressing the economic crisis and the security situation in Afghanistan and Iraq, while displaying a welcome amount of competence and intelligence more generally, is allowing voters to see a little bit of Presidents Kennedy, Clinton, Carter and Roosevelt in Obama.

While Obama continues to strengthen, the Republican Party is reeling. The defection of Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter is just the latest sign of a party in crisis, a sign this survey confirms. Republicans continue to lag in partisan self-identification as moderates now associate with the Democratic Party by more than a two-to-one ratio. Meanwhile, the Republican brand remains deeply unpopular, with the party sporting a net favorability rating of -15 points. More troubling for the Republican Party, fully a quarter of voters find nothing encouraging about their actions during Obama’s first 100 days.

This memo is based on a national survey of 1,000 2008 voters, including 158 interviewed on cell phones (124 unweighted) and 851 likely 2010 voters (867 unweighted), conducted for Democracy Corps by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, April 22-26, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 percent.

In announcing his intention to leave the Republican Party, Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter said, “Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right… I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans.” Two new surveys from Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner show that this sentiment is shared by a sizeable majority of voters as well.

Democrats continue to maintain a sizeable advantage on partisan identification (currently 8 points), and the proportion of voters that considers themselves to be “strong Republicans” is at just 18 percent, close to an all-time low in our polling. Meanwhile, the Republican brand remains deeply unpopular, with the party sporting a net favorability rating of -15 points (31 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable). By comparisons, the Democratic Party enjoys a relatively strong +10 rating (46 percent favorable, 36 percent unfavorable). And in a test of 2010 congressional vote (using the incumbents’ names), Democrats currently hold a 10-point advantage, a slight increase from their 2008 margin.

The Republican leadership’s persistent yet directionless opposition to President Obama over his first 100 days in office has not helped matters. When asked which of seven actions (including working to keep taxes low, proving checks and balances and offering an alternative budget with less spending and a lower deficit) by the Republicans during Obama’s first 100 days were the most encouraging, a full 26 percent of voters replied “none of the above.” Meanwhile, voters cited the party’s obstruction of Obama and its lack of leadership and direction as the most worrisome aspects of today’s GOP.

All of this has left the Republican Party in a deep hole, especially when compared to President Obama. Indeed, even in the 40-most vulnerable Democratic congressional seats, a more conservative battleground than the country as a whole, President Obama is trusted to a better job than the Republicans on every issue tested, most by dominant margins. This includes a 16-point advantage on the economy, a 24-point advantage on health care and a 27-point advantage on energy policy, along with a two-to-one lead on being willing to cross the aisle and work with both parties.

As Stanley Greenberg, co-founder of Democracy Corps, note, “Senator Specter’s decision to switch parties is merely a symptom of what ails the Republican Party. By retreating to a hardcore base and reflexively opposing President Obama’s agenda, the Republicans are at risk of becoming a regional, and marginalized, party.” James Carville, Greenberg’s partner in co-founding Democracy Corps, adds, “Senator Specter’s defection offers the specter of thousands more who find no home with the southern, talk-show base of the Republican Party.”

This analysis is based on a national survey of 1,000 2008 voters (842 reached via landline, 158 reached via cell), conducted April 22 through 26, and a survey of 1,000 likely voters in the 40 most vulnerable Democratic-held congressional districts, conducted April 16-21. Further results from the national survey will be released later this week.