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November 09, 2018

The Rising American Electorate...

The Democrats had a very big election on Tuesday, with a 5-point national congressional margin that allowed them to pick up 32 House seats, to elect a...
June 18, 2018

Riling Up the Base May Backfire on...

This article by Stanley Greenberg first appeared on The New York Times website on June 18, 2018.   Political commentators and strategists write...
June 20, 2018

The Broad Support for Taxing the...

By Stanley Greenberg for the Summer 2018 issue of The American Prospect magazine. (This article originally appeared online on June 20,...

Republican Party Project
Trump’s GOP Election Eve
Monday, November 05 2018

President Donald Trump closed this campaign by warning of the grave danger people posed by criminal and violent immigrants and from the Democratic leaders who support open borders and sanctuary cities.  We think you will find that when the votes are all counted, Trump’s base strategy will cost him in the midterms. Trump’s base strategy has produced an intense anti-Trump reaction among Democrats, the Rising American Electorate of people of color, unmarried women and millennials, and all types of women, but it also produces an ambivalent or hostile reaction among parts of the GOP base. 

A survey database Democracy Corps created with the help partner organizations shows that the Trump has been able to elevate his strong approval and the determination to vote among his Tea Party and Evangelical "Loyalists", but they cannot match the intensity of the strong disapproval and determination to vote among all Democrats. When you look closely at this database, you can see this is a fractured Republican Party which includes some voters who will not vote to defend Trump on Tuesday and even some who will vote for a Democrat. 

Before the results come in, we want you to have this close up look at the GOP base, based on our database of 6,069 interviews with self-identified Republicans conducted since April, half conducted in the past 2 months. This database includes responses from an on-going web-panel of Republicans in the battleground sponsored by Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, the first wave of which was conducted in September. The second wave among the same GOP panel participants is in the field now and will be released after the election. 




The GOP Civil War: The Kavanaugh Confirmation & John McCain
Tuesday, October 09 2018

President Donald Trump has chosen to crudely heat up the culture war to get his base to erase the Democratic advantage heading into the midterms. The President, Brett Kavanaugh, and most Senate Republicans have made white men a victim of a dominant PC culture giving greater claims to women and professional women in particular. To fully understand how Trump and McConnell’s “push through it” partisanship will impact the midterms, keep in mind that the major studies from Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund have found that the GOP is fractured and polarized.



Conflicted Catholic Conservative Republicans
Monday, October 01 2018

One-fifth of Republicans are conservative or observant Catholics and look like the history of industrialized America that took pro-life, socially conservative, patriotic Catholics into the Republican Party, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast. That is why we conducted one of our focus groups for the Trump-GOP project among Catholic conservative men from Macomb County, Michigan. The participants reflected that history: seven-in-ten were 50 or older, making them the oldest voters in the GOP base, and they held traditional blue color jobs in the auto-industry, mechanics, and construction.

With the importance of their pro-life position and President Trump addressing the trade issue, none of these voters entertained voting for Democrats in 2018, but many felt less motivated to keep Democrats out of power and to defend Donald Trump. In 2020, half said they would be open to voting for a third-party challenger if someone like John Kasich, who better reflects their Catholic values, ran against the president.





2018 Targets in Trump’s GOP
Thursday, September 06 2018

The Trump presidency has created serious opportunities for agile progressives to target and deliver messages to a fractured and demoralized GOP. This is the conclusion of Democracy Corps’ new national online message test of 1,200 Republican registered voters, numerous Catalist voter-file matched phone surveys, and focus groups among the factions of the GOP.

Fully 40 percent of the GOP base are part of factions that are unenthusiastic about President Trump and one-quarter may be targeted in these final 60 days before the midterm. These targets may be identified by demographic variables, partisanship, and ideological identity – including by the existing models available to progressives on Catalist’s voter-file. They want leaders who will be a check on Donald Trump and are responsive to messages demanding a less divisive politics.




The loyalist GOP Evangelical conservatives
Monday, August 13 2018

Democracy Corps’ new project on the Trump-GOP began with focus groups with the Evangelical GOP women from the smaller towns outside Raleigh, North Carolina. One-in-four Republicans identify as Evangelical and conservative. They are the quintessential values voters at the core of the GOP and President Donald Trump’s base. Their conservatism is defined by their religious faith, which puts them on the defensive in a country that is increasingly liberal, secular, and politicized. In fact, the moderator intervened to assure them they did not have to be apologetic about their social conservatism.

For all Trump’s unchristian behavior and style, the Evangelical GOP thank President Trump for sticking to his guns and to their social agenda and for appointing socially conservative judges. They welcome his pushing back against liberalism after eight years of Obama and the failure of the GOP establishment.

Because their values are under siege, the stakes for the Evangelical GOP in the off-year election are incredibly high, and they must vote to defend the Trump presidency.  


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