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June 18, 2018

Riling Up the Base May Backfire on...

This article by Stanley Greenberg first appeared on The New York Times website on June 18, 2018.   Political commentators and strategists write...
June 20, 2018

The Broad Support for Taxing the...

By Stanley Greenberg for the Summer 2018 issue of The American Prospect magazine. (This article originally appeared online on June 20,...
July 13, 2018

Trump & GOP Strategy Make Blue...

Pundits built a new conventional wisdom that included higher job approval ratings for President Donald Trump due to the tax cuts and strong economy...

Republican Party Project
2018 Targets in Trump’s GOP
Thursday, September 06 2018

The Trump presidency has created serious opportunities for agile progressives to target and deliver messages to a fractured and demoralized GOP. This is the conclusion of Democracy Corps’ new national online message test of 1,200 Republican registered voters, numerous Catalist voter-file matched phone surveys, and focus groups among the factions of the GOP.

Fully 40 percent of the GOP base are part of factions that are unenthusiastic about President Trump and one-quarter may be targeted in these final 60 days before the midterm. These targets may be identified by demographic variables, partisanship, and ideological identity – including by the existing models available to progressives on Catalist’s voter-file. They want leaders who will be a check on Donald Trump and are responsive to messages demanding a less divisive politics.




The loyalist GOP Evangelical conservatives
Monday, August 13 2018

Democracy Corps’ new project on the Trump-GOP began with focus groups with the Evangelical GOP women from the smaller towns outside Raleigh, North Carolina. One-in-four Republicans identify as Evangelical and conservative. They are the quintessential values voters at the core of the GOP and President Donald Trump’s base. Their conservatism is defined by their religious faith, which puts them on the defensive in a country that is increasingly liberal, secular, and politicized. In fact, the moderator intervened to assure them they did not have to be apologetic about their social conservatism.

For all Trump’s unchristian behavior and style, the Evangelical GOP thank President Trump for sticking to his guns and to their social agenda and for appointing socially conservative judges. They welcome his pushing back against liberalism after eight years of Obama and the failure of the GOP establishment.

Because their values are under siege, the stakes for the Evangelical GOP in the off-year election are incredibly high, and they must vote to defend the Trump presidency.  


Tea Party Trump Loyalists
Monday, August 13 2018
Download this file (Dcor_GOP_Tea Party Memo_8.13.2018_for release.pdf)Report: Tea Party Trump Loyalists[ ]484 Kb

Democracy Corps recently conducted a series of focus groups with the various factions of the Republican Party, including a group of Tea Party men. Tea Party supporting Republicans are 21 percent of the GOP base and they are President Donald Trump’s most ardent supporters. These are the voters that Trump is speaking to in his campaign rallies, and they were the only group of Republicans who responded to videos of his rallies with enthusiasm. The Tea Party GOP are sick of the “PC-police” and love that Trump is speaking his mind and driving liberals crazy. They are glad someone isn’t scared of liberal name calling and will roll up their sleeves and get tough on issues like immigration, the Second Amendment, and taxes. The Tea Party GOP are motivated to stop Democrats and defend Donald Trump by voting for Republicans in 2018 and supporting Trump in 2020.


Trump-skeptical secular conservative Republicans
Tuesday, August 07 2018

Democracy Corps recently conducted a series of focus groups with all the major factions of the Republican base, including a conflicted group of “secular conservative” men in Denver. They are part of the one-in-five Republicans who are ideologically conservative and religiously unaffiliated or non-observant. All of them supported Trump’s tax cuts, deregulation, and conservative Supreme Court picks, and most think the economy is moving in the right direction. A sizable minority embraced President Trump and repeated the Fox narrative about the country. But the majority were turned off by Trump’s protectionist policies, the way he badgers private businesses, his tendency to over-claim, and his inability to act presidential.

Inside Trump's GOP: not what you think!
Friday, August 03 2018

Four months before the election, Democracy Corps started conducting deep qualitative and quantitative research with the base voters who identify with the Republican Party. The findings paint a picture very different from the one that assumes the GOP is Trump’s party. That realization reveals big opportunities for progressives in the remaining 90 days before the election. Democracy Corps will be releasing further reports on how to take advantage of these opportunities.

The conventional wisdom on President Donald Trump and the GOP is just wrong. Trump does indeed get a rousing response from Evangelical conservatives and Tea Party supporters, and they do emerge more determined to vote in 2018. But they form just half of the today’s GOP. Catholic conservatives, secular conservatives, and moderates make up 53 percent of the GOP base, and they are much less passionate about Trump and less enthusiastic about voting in November.


In the final 90 days before the midterms, Donald Trump’s base strategy will be in full force, but this research reveals that his messaging and persona divide Republicans and open the door for opportunistic progressives to appeal to the less enthusiastic GOP, particularly the women and millennials, on issues like women’s choice, Medicaid and health care, and the environment.


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