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April 21, 2017

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In the News
Unmarried Women Cast Deciding Votes in Virginia Election
Friday, November 08 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (dcwv.exit.graphs.final.pdf)Graphs[ ]1021 Kb
Download this file (dcwv.va.exit.memo.final.pdf)Memo[ ]567 Kb

On November 5, 2013, Terry McAuliffe won the gubernatorial election with the overwhelming support of Virginia’s unmarried women.  Unmarried women, who gave McAuliffe two thirds of their votes, matching President Obama’s vote among this group, were decisive in the Democrat’s narrow victory over Republican Ken Cuccinelli.  While unmarried women turned out in the off-year election in smaller numbers than in 2012 and slightly below 2009, they supported McAuliffe in strong numbers.  This is both a good early indicator for Democrats in 2014, but also an equally important warning sign. Democrats need these voters to win and that means turnout to vote.  But in order to turn them out, Democrats must speak to the issues that matter to them most.   

Read more... [Unmarried Women Cast Deciding Votes in Virginia Election]
 
Democracy Corps and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Ranked Most Accurate of All National Pollsters in 2012 Election
Thursday, November 15 2012

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Democracy Corps are proud to have produced the most accurate national polls in the last three weeks of the 2012 U.S. presidential election, according to Nate Silver of New York Times FiveThirtyEight, with a smaller error than any national pollster – less than 1 percentage point – as highlighted by the graphic below from Silver’s blog. 

Our accuracy in this election reflected years of intense study and a series of careful decisions about key assumptions in our election modeling, including ones regarding demographic and turnout trends among pivotal voting groups, notably Latinos.  It reflected our years of attention to the composition and dynamics of the “Rising American Electorate” – young voters, non-whites, and unmarried women – a set of voters who decided this election, and who will be a core element of the progressive coalition for years to come.  And our accuracy reflected our intense focus on the methodological changes necessary to accurately sample the full American electorate – such as insisting on a higher proportion of cell phone interviews, despite the higher costs. 

 
How unmarried women, youth and people of color defined this election
Thursday, November 08 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (WVWV post-elect (draft6).pdf)Graphs[ ]679 Kb

Democracy Corps, along with partners at Campaign for America’s Future and Women's Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, conducted election night and day-after interviews among those who voted this week to probe attitudes about why they made the choices they made in this election, what they expect of their leaders, and what their priorities are for the period ahead.


Read more... [How unmarried women, youth and people of color defined this election]
 
Cell phones: why we think Obama will win the popular vote, too
Monday, October 29 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.celldatabase.graphs.102812.WEB.pdf)Graphs[ ]853 Kb
Download this file (dcor.cellusecombined.bbk.8t1012.pdf)Crosstabs[ ]270 Kb
Download this file (dcor.comb.cell.102812.memo.FINAL.pdf)Memo[ ]307 Kb

 

We will poll this week – awaiting the unfolding storm on the East Coast – but we want to share why we think the national tracking averages likely underrepresent Obama’s vote.  The main issue is cell phones and the changing America that most are under-representing.  Our likely voter sample includes 30 percent reached on cell-phones from a cell-phone sample conducted in parallel with our random-digit phone sample.   Some other surveys have moved to that level and methodology, but most have not.  They are missing the new America, and we’re not sure we are keeping up either.[1]

 

Read more... [Cell phones: why we think Obama will win the popular vote, too]
 
Romney Has a Good Night, But No Evidence of Changing the Game
Thursday, October 04 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (debate.memo.v5.pdf)Memo[ ]136 Kb

Strong Debate Performance Does Not Seem Likely to Change Political Calculus

Working in partnership with the Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund, Democracy Corps seated a group of 45 swing voters in Denver to watch and react to the first Presidential debate.  This group, which included 16 unmarried women, is part of a larger research effort to take a hard look at these critical voters, exploring their role and participation in the 2012 elections.  

Overall, the dial testing and follow-up discussions showed Mitt Romney performing well, improving his personal appeal and a number of important attributes.  Obama also impressed the group, but not to the same degree as Romney.  However, the research does not suggest that Romney fundamentally changed the political calculus in this election.  For example, while Romney picked up some voters, he mostly consolidated undecided voters who leaned Republican—the former McCain voters who had not yet warmed up to the Republican nominee.  He did not cut into Obama’s weak support among voters in this group. 

Read more... [Romney Has a Good Night, But No Evidence of Changing the Game]
 
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