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November 18, 2018

Trump Is Beginning to Lose His...

By Stanley Greenberg This op-ed first appeared in the New York Times Sunday Review on November 18, 2018.    America’s polarized citizenry...
December 10, 2018

Unmarried Women in 2018

Unmarried women comprised 23 percent of the national electorate and played a decisive role in the 2018 wave. Like other women, many unmarried women...
November 16, 2018

Democrats won big embracing strong...

Many vulnerable Republicans hoped that the GDP and jobs numbers and their signature legislative accomplishment, the tax cut, would persuade voters to...

In the News
Trump Is Beginning to Lose His Grip
Sunday, November 18 2018
By Stanley Greenberg
This op-ed first appeared in the New York Times Sunday Review on November 18, 2018. 
 
America’s polarized citizenry took a break from intense partisan bickering to produce the highest off-year turnout in a midterm election in 50 years on Nov. 6. Is it possible that all that effort actually nudged us forward a bit? Because the votes were counted so slowly across the country, we were also slow to realize that Democrats had won the national congressional vote by a margin greater than that of the Tea Party Republicans in 2010. In fact, Democrats overcame huge structural hurdles to win nearly 40 seats. At first, the results looked like something of a stalemate. The Republican Party retained and even strengthened its hold on the Senate. President Trump’s approval rating was at 45 percent, one percentage point below his percentage of the popular vote in the 2016 election. Analysts said that Mr. Trump still knew how to get Republicans “excited, interested and turn them out” and that he had “deepened his hold on rural areas.” In the days that followed, though, it became clear that Democrats had made substantial gains. Analysts I trusted concluded that this was because suburban and college-educated women issued “a sharp rebuke to President Trump” that set off a “blue wave through the urban and suburban House districts.” At first, I also believed that was the main story line. But the 2018 election was much bigger than that. It was transformative, knocking down what we assumed were Electoral College certainties. We didn’t immediately see this transformation because we assumed that Mr. Trump and the polarization in his wake still governed as before.
 
 
The Broad Support for Taxing the Wealthy
Wednesday, June 20 2018
By Stanley Greenberg for the Summer 2018 issue of The American Prospect magazine. (This article originally appeared online on June 20, 2018.)
 
The 2018 elections in November could be as important to Democrats as the anti-Obamacare 2010 wave election that shaped American politics for almost a decade was to Republicans—if Democrats don’t let ’em hide from their tax scam for the rich. And we do not yet know whether Democrats will get it right. As Democrats allowed issues of health care, Medicare, Medicaid, and the tax cuts to move to the sidelines, the national generic vote has narrowed and Trump’s approval rating has crept up. Democrats have deferred to the Republicans on the economy, even though it remains the simplest, most important determinant of the off-year congressional vote, and even though the Democratic base and swing voters are deeply suspicious of what Trump and the congressional Republicans are doing passing a tax cut for the rich.
 
Am I really recommending that we run in 2018 on raisingtaxes? Yes. We will raise taxes on the rich. Count on it. Voters view that as the most important thing we can do to reverse the Republicans’ corrupt course. Three-quarters of voters want to reverse the tax cuts or raise taxes on the rich to invest in or help the middle class, according to a June survey.
 
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Riling Up the Base May Backfire on Trump
Monday, June 18 2018
This article by Stanley Greenberg first appeared on The New York Times website on June 18, 2018.
 
Political commentators and strategists write with some awe of President Trump’s outrageous, gutsy strategy of ginning up his base with one more attack on black athletes, one more crackdown on Central American mothers and children on the Mexican border, one more assault on Obamacare, one more tariff on imports. They think Mr. Trump’s drumbeat is intensifying loyalty and fervor among Republican partisans and that the Republican Party we used to know is “taking a nap somewhere,” as John Boehner, the former speaker of the House, put it. Much more worrisome for those of us who think the country needs a blue wave in 2018 is the way Mr. Trump’s strategy appears to be raising his job approval ratings and closing the enthusiasm gap with Democrats that has been a critical element in the handful of off-year elections since 2016. Any wave election worth its salt — like the 1974 Watergate cleansing, the 1994 Gingrich revolution or the 2010 Tea Party shellacking — is produced by the elevated energy and enthusiasm of one party and the demoralization and fracturing of the other.
 
Well, Mr. Trump’s base strategy is producing precisely that kind of enthusiasm gap in the polls I am conducting for Democracy Corps and its partners, the Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund and the American Federation of Teachers. Mr. Trump’s strategy is to continue to build support with the Tea Party supporters and evangelicals who make up a plurality of those who identify as Republicans, but they are by no means the whole of the party. And Mr. Trump shows as much interest in winning over those less enthusiastic Republicans as he does in winning independents and Democrats — which is to say, not much.
 
 
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To win in 2018, Democrats must speak to party's base
Friday, May 18 2018

By Stanley Greenberg & Page Gardner for The Hill, May 18, 2018

With approval ratings of 42 percent for President Trump and a dismal 18 percent for the Republican Congress, Democrats could be poised to win landslide victories in this year’s elections — from the U.S. House and Senate to governorships and state legislatures. But they’ll lose this opportunity if they don’t address the economic challenges confronting their strongest supporters, who are at risk of staying home on election day.
 
Struggling to stay even economically, and with a history of under-participating politically, the Democratic Party’s base consists largely of people of color, unmarried women and young people. Now numbering an estimated 133 million adults, these fast-growing groups constitute what we call the “Rising American Electorate,” or RAE. Since 2016, they’ve comprised a clear majority of the voting-age population.
 

 

 
 
 

 

 
 
The Democratic Civil War Is Getting Nasty, Even If No One Is Paying Attention
Saturday, November 04 2017

By Susan Glasser. This article appeared in The New Yorker on November 1, 2017.

On the morning of October 5th, President Trump was on one of his Twitter rants from the White House, denying as “fake news” an NBC report that his Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, had called him a “moron” and threatened to resign. Elsewhere in Washington, the drama over whether Tillerson was actually on his way out threatened to overwhelm other news stories for a second straight day. But, when I arrived at the townhouse of Stanley Greenberg, the veteran Democratic strategist, on Capitol Hill, later that morning, it was not the distractions of the Trump White House that had him worked up. Greenberg was still fuming about Hillary Clinton. Clinton was guilty of “malpractice” in how she conducted her 2016 Presidential campaign, Greenberg told me. Even worse, he said, Democrats were repeating the same political mistakes a year later. “Look at Virginia right now,” Greenberg said, as soon as we sat down in his second-floor office. 
 
 
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