Most Popular

November 18, 2018

Trump Is Beginning to Lose His...

By Stanley Greenberg This op-ed first appeared in the New York Times Sunday Review on November 18, 2018.    America’s polarized citizenry...
December 10, 2018

Unmarried Women in 2018

Unmarried women comprised 23 percent of the national electorate and played a decisive role in the 2018 wave. Like other women, many unmarried women...
November 16, 2018

Democrats won big embracing strong...

Many vulnerable Republicans hoped that the GDP and jobs numbers and their signature legislative accomplishment, the tax cut, would persuade voters to...

The Changing Presidential Race after the Conventions
Monday, September 15 2008

The latest events in the presidential campaign have tightened the race dramatically. In Democracy Corps' latest surveys of 1,000 likely voters nationally and 1,017 likely voters in the presidential battleground states, the vote margin has shifted 7 points towards John McCain nationally and 9 points in the battleground. This swing puts McCain ahead of Barack Obama by 2 points nationally (48 to 46 percent), consistent with the national public polls, and by 1 point in the battleground states (48 to 47 percent)

Though these results are challenging, this is still an election that Obama has at least an even chance of winning. In this memo, Stan Greenberg and James Carville analyze the new dynamics of the election that progressive Democrats and the Obama campaign should address to get the race back on track. Their recommendations include elevating Obama's profile on strength, experience, honesty and national security to contesting Republicans on change and the economy and appealing to independent voters and targeting key groups among which Obama is underperforming (older women - especially seniors and unmarried, white union households and white non college men).