Most Popular

June 18, 2018

Riling Up the Base May Backfire on...

This article by Stanley Greenberg first appeared on The New York Times website on June 18, 2018.   Political commentators and strategists write...
June 14, 2018

Trump-GOP tax cut integral to...

The Trump-GOP tax cut must be the centerpiece of any Democratic midterm message, in the same way that Obamacare was the foundation for the Republican...
May 18, 2018

To win in 2018, Democrats must...

By Stanley Greenberg & Page Gardner for The Hill, May 18, 2018 With approval ratings of 42 percent for President Trump and a dismal 18 percent for...

October Surprise?
Wednesday, October 06 2010

Tags: democracy corps | Democrats | house | national | Republican Party | senate

Attachments:
Download this file (6052_Democracy Corps-October Surprise - Graphs.pdf)Graphs[ ]265 Kb
Download this file (dcor100410fq10.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]66 Kb
Download this file (October-Surprise.FINAL_.pdf)Memo[ ]73 Kb

We are very close to believing that the 2010 election can move to a new place. Our latest poll shows the Democrats with a 6-point deficit--”and any shift will have a significant impact on the number of House seats and the hold on the Senate. This conclusion and recommendations on strategy and message are based on a special program of weekly October polling aimed at producing an 'October surprise.'

Click here for a PDF of this analysis. This is not a fool's errand.  In the 1998 election, we conducted national polls starting in September to see if Democrats could push back against the Republican overreach on Ken Starr and impeachment, as Democrats faced the prospect of historic losses in both the House and Senate.  Only two weeks before the election did the plates shift and a Democratic counter-message on impeachment became effective in our polls. In the end, Democrats lost no net seats in Senate, gained five House seats and Newt Gingrich resigned.

Click here to see the graphs.