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Friday, July 08 2016

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 11 points in Democracy Corps’ most recent national survey (48 percent to 37 percent, with 8 percent voting for Libertarian Gary Johnson). This survey of 900 likely 2016 voters was conducted June 23-28th with 66 percent of respondents reached on cell phones. [1]

Importantly, this is the first time that we have seen the presidential vote margin for Democrats exceed the Democrats’ party identification advantage: in this case, Democrats hold a 6-point advantage in party identification and an 8-point advantage with Republican and Democratic leaning-independents.

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This poll also shows Democrats making gains down-ballot. In a named congressional ballot, Democratic congressional candidates have opened an 8-point lead over Republican congressional candidates (49 to 41 percent). This is up from a 6-point advantage over the Republican candidates in March polling, and the greatest margin for congressional Democrats that we have measured since June 2009 in our polling. This is also the same margin achieved during the wave elections of 2006 and 2008.

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[1] Democracy Corps conducted a poll of 900 likely voters across the nation from June 23rd – 28th.  Sixty-six percent of the surveys were completed among cell phone respondents. The margin of error is +/- 3.27 percentage points.  Margin of error is higher among subgroups.