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National Surveys
New Poll for NPR says, be careful accepting conventional wisdom on The Affordable Care Act and 2014 being a Republican year
Thursday, April 03 2014

New Poll for NPR says, be careful accepting conventional wisdom on The Affordable Care Act and 2014 being a Republican year  

A new national poll of likely voters fielded by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and designed by Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic for National Public Radio shows the national congressional vote effectively tied, with Democrats ahead by 1 point, 44 percentto 43percent, among the 2014 likely electorate. In its analysis, Democracy Corps urges the political class to re-examine its assumptions about The Affordable Care Act and about this being a Republican year.  

The Republicans have bet heavily on Obamacare's unpopularity, but that misreads the public's views on the Affordable Care Act.  This is a base and turnout issue for Republicans but the public judgment is dynamic and moving and could come to haunt the Republicans.  When Democrats make the case for the very real benefits and the public thinks the Republicans really want to repeal the law, off-year voters notice.  With more than7.1 million successfully signing up through exchanges, voters could come to see the stakes.  That could impact turnout on the Democratic side.

 

Key Findings:

  • The Congressional vote is nowdead even(44 percent to 43 percent)among likely voters.  By 7 points, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they are certain to vote.

 

  • Democratic base groups (especially the Rising American Electorate of unmarried women, young people, and minorities) are not performing where they could be (both in turnout and support for Democrats) but that could move in the future. 

 

  • President Obama has a net negative approval with likely voters and low approval numbers among independents.  This is part of what is challenging, but in public polls, his approval has moved up from 42 percent to 44 percent and is at 46 percent in this poll.

 

  • The Republican Party and Republican Congress brands remain toxic.  Nearly three quarters (72 percent) of likely voters disapprove of the Republican House, half (48 percent) do so strongly.  Just a quarter (24 percent) approve. The Republican House now has a net negative -48 approval.

 

  • This poll finds that there has been a misreading of public opinion on the Affordable Care Act.  Among likely voters who say they oppose the law, 7 percent do so because it does not go far enough—this is especially concentrated among minorities.  Only about 45 percent of the electorate is really opposed because it represents big government. 

 

  • As a result, when the debate is between implementing or repealing the ACA, the intensity shifts towards implementing the law, so it is possible that Democrats will be able to turn the debate.

 

  • In this poll, we tested the best Republican argument on healthcare, written by Resurgent Republic, against a Democratic message which says the law needs fixes but makes critical changes.  Democrats win this debate by 5 points and with an advantage on intensity.  This should lead Democrats to rethink.

 

  • The Rising American Electorate favor Democrats’ message in this debate by 22 points, and do so with real intensity (half say they strongly favor this message over the Republican alternative). 

 

  • Over the coming week, we will be releasing more material with Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund about the role of the RAE and unmarried women in this election and the important messages and policies that move both turnout and performance among these groups.

 

54 percent support ACA

 
Keep in mind, Ted Cruz is mainstream in the Republican base.
Monday, October 21 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (100813_DCORPS_National_fq.cruz.pdf)100813_DCORPS_National_fq.cruz.pdf[ ]146 Kb

Keep in mind, Ted Cruz is mainstream in the Republican base.  According to the latest national survey conducted for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, which fielded just last week, Ted Cruz is right at the center of a Republican Party that is majority Tea Party and Evangelical.  Combined, these groups make up over half of Republican partisans, and comprise over 60 percent of the GOP when you include the religious observants.

Cruz is immensely popular with Tea Party adherents.  Among this group, 75 percent give him a positive rating and half give him an intensely positive rating (over 75 on our 100-point scale.)  His average rating among this group is a stunning 81.8 out of 100.  While he is less well known among Evangelical Republicans, he is no less popular among those who identify him—40 percent give him a positive rating, a third are intensely favorable toward him.  On average, Evangelicals give Cruz a rating of 75.9 out of 100.

By contrast, moderate Republicans, who make up just a quarter of the Republican Party, are split evenly—16 percent unfavorable, 18 percent favorable.  His average rating among Moderates is just 51.0. And among all voters in the US, he has a quite negative rating and is known to about half the electorate.  Just 18 percent of all voters give Cruz a favorable rating—and an average rating of just 39.7. 

But even as pundits label Cruz as “fringe,” it is critical to remember that this is only true when talking about the national electorate.  In his own party, there is nothing “fringe” about Ted Cruz.  He is right at the center. 

 

 
38 Percent: A new national survey on the ACA
Wednesday, October 16 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor wv hcmemo 101510 final.pdf)Memo[ ]1007 Kb
Download this file (dcwv graphs 101613 hc final.pdf)Graphs[ ]1719 Kb
Download this file (dcwv.fq.100813.hcrelease.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]288 Kb

A new national survey conducted for Democracy Corps and the Women’s Voices Women’s Vote Action Fund[1] shows an intense new majority for implementing and improving the Affordable Care Act. A minority of voters want to repeal or replace “Obamacare,” which has been the core demand of the Republicans in Congress who have shut down the government. 

We want to be clear because so much of the punditry assumes Obamacare is “unpopular.”  Many supporters assume that support will come once the benefits take effect in January.  Neither of these assumptions is true.  Support has shifted dramatically since 2010 when reforms were unpopular and supporters paid a high political price. Some of that reflects perceptions of new positive benefits by people over 50 years, white older women and unmarried women.  While supporters and opponents are divided evenly on the health care reforms, 8 percent are opposed because they do not go far enough.  Just 38 percent are opposed because it is big government – very close to the number who stick with the Republican call to repeal and replace the law.

Read more... [38 Percent: A new national survey on the ACA]
 
New Survey From Democracy Corps and Women's Voices. Women Vote Action Fund
Wednesday, October 09 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (New Survey from DCorps WVWV Action Fund100913.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]207 Kb

The latest national survey by Democracy Corps and Women's Voices. Women Vote Action Fund shows that Republicans are paying a big price with the public and are now bleeding seriously in their congressional vote.  Up until now, they have had peaks of voter disapproval, but this spike is the highest.  This is the first time we have seen voters' disapproval really translate into the vote -- a named ballot where we identify incumbents by name, not a generic vote.

  • Americans are not buying Republicans’ shutdown politics, and Republicans are likely to pay the price. For the first time we asked voters who they prefer to control Congress after the 2014 elections, and by 4 points likely voters say Democrats. And when asked if shutting down the government over defunding Obamacare will make them more or less likely to vote for their named Republican incumbents, nearly half (47 percent) of 2014 likely voters say less likely, with over one-third (35 percent) saying much less likely.
  • The Republican Party brand has continued to fall since July, with fully half of voters now viewing the party negatively. Importantly, the party's strong negatives have grown 8 points since July, and now more than a third (36 percent) say they are strongly unfavorable to the Republican Party. The Democratic Party, meanwhile, has maintained their standing from July, even showing an increase in those who are strongly favorable to the party (21 percent strongly favorable, compared to 18 percent in July).
  • Republicans in Congress are now at one of the lowest points we have ever recorded, with 51 percent viewing them negatively -- a 5-point increase since March. Voters remain disdainful of how they are handling their job in charge of Congress, with over two-thirds (69 percent) saying they disapprove; furthermore almost half (48 percent) now strongly disapprove, an increase of 6 points since July.
  •  Democrats in Congress now have an 8-point lead in favorability over their Republican colleagues, with 37 percent of voters viewing Democrats in Congress positively, compared to 29 percent viewing Republicans in Congress favorably.
  • John Boehner has also suffered from the shutdown. Half of voters are giving him negative ratings, making him the most negatively viewed politician in the country.

 

 
Putting the spotlight on the Republican Party
Tuesday, July 23 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.nat.fq.rep.071513.web.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]255 Kb
Download this file (Dcor.rpp.graphs.072313.web.pdf)Graphs[July 2013 RPP Graphs]1540 Kb

Democracy Corps is announcing a new initiative -- the Republican Party Project -- by releasing results from the project's first national survey. 

The President and Democrats won big in 2012 but Republicans now set the terms of the debate -- governing from the gerrymandered House and half the states where they have complete control over the governorships and state legislatures.  But instead of moving to the center, brokering compromise, and working with Democrats, the Republican Party has moved dramatically to the right and endangered itself as a national party -- yet pundits are convinced the party will pay no price for having little national appeal.

Read more... [Putting the spotlight on the Republican Party]
 
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