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November 18, 2018

Trump Is Beginning to Lose His...

By Stanley Greenberg This op-ed first appeared in the New York Times Sunday Review on November 18, 2018.    America’s polarized citizenry...
December 10, 2018

Unmarried Women in 2018

Unmarried women comprised 23 percent of the national electorate and played a decisive role in the 2018 wave. Like other women, many unmarried women...
November 16, 2018

Democrats won big embracing strong...

Many vulnerable Republicans hoped that the GDP and jobs numbers and their signature legislative accomplishment, the tax cut, would persuade voters to...

National Surveys
The Democratic opportunity on the economy & tax cuts
Wednesday, April 11 2018

The midterm election is starting to break against Donald Trump and the Republican Party in profound ways and running on the economy and the new tax cut helps further solidify advantages for Democrats.This is according to a new AFT-Democracy Corps national phone poll and deep focus group research on the economy, President Trump, the new tax cuts, and strategies for 2018. Conservatives and pundits are hoping two factors mitigate against the realization of a Democratic wave: one is the strength of the macro-economy and the other is the new tax cut, both of which they believe are producing real benefits for ordinary Americans. Based on our qualitative and quantitative research, AFT and Democracy Corps think that assumption is wrong. But only if Democrats embrace the fact that the economy is not producing for working and middle class people whose wage increases are not keeping up with rising costs, particularly the cost of health care; if they make clear this tax cut is ‘rigged for the rich’ at the expense of everyone else and that the huge cost of the tax cuts means less investment in education, healthcare and infrastructure and imminent cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.





2018 at a Breaking Point? Not Yet, Says New Poll
Wednesday, January 24 2018

Over the last three months, Democrats have doubled their margin in the generic congressional ballot to an 11-point advantage among registered voters and an 8-point lead among likely voters nationally. That is near the 9-point margin Democrats won in 2006 when they flipped 30 congressional seats and retook the majority, though reapportionment makes it harder to cross that threshold today. Democrats sit at the edge of a wave thanks to the impressive vote gains among the Rising American Electorate (minorities, unmarried women and millennials) and women with college degrees - gains witnessed in so many special elections in 2017. But the wave also depends on the turnout of the Rising American Electorate whose enthusiasm for voting is falling in this new polling on behalf of WVWVAF. Democrats can both build their margins and interest in voting across the RAE base when they (1) make the election about a rejection of trickle-down, (2) target Trump instead of the GOP, (3) attack him for betraying his promise to end politics as usual, (4) and articulate a disruptive economic change message.



Disruptive changes among key voters in 2017
Thursday, November 02 2017

There are big forces at work in the coming year that could produce an earthquake of an off-year election, including a parade of indictments, the GOP civil war playing out in Republican primaries, a congressional impasse on everything, a wrong track number nearing 75 percent and a presidential job approval that does not get over 40 percent – as we now report in this second wave of Democracy Corps’ phone poll and panel program on behalf of Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund. African Americans are holding solid on key measures and ready to play their part; unmarried women can be readily stirred; and millennials, who are more disengaged than any other group, can be engaged if leaders and organizations get their act together. Democrats may push the generic ballot into double-digits with a promise to disrupt the status quo, a powerful economic change message, a focus on the unpopular Republican Congress, and attacks on the Republicans for their plans for health care and to cut Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security.



The Country Hates the GOP Congress: Why Don't Democrats Have a Knock-out Lead?
Monday, October 23 2017

About 9 months into his presidency, Donald Trump has settled into a historically weak job approval of 41 percent, well below his presidential vote, and with the strong disapproval over 45 percent of voters. He remains an unrepentant divider which pervades all political discourse.

Yet the most hated politicians are the Republicans in Congress, and perhaps they ought to be more of the focus as they are on the ballot in 2018. Mitch McConnell is the least popular congressional leader in Democracy Corps’ polling, followed by Speaker Ryan. Voters know that the Republicans are in charge in Congress and these are the poster children. So why do the Democrats not enjoy a stronger lead in the ballot?


How Progressives Can Position on NAFTA Renegotiation
Friday, October 20 2017
Trade stands out from every other policy issue because Donald Trump’s unhappiness with the status quo is shared by virtually all progressive advocacy groups and nearly all Democratic Members of Congress. It is urgent for progressives to engage on trade because Trump has triggered the renegotiation of NAFTA, because he wins high marks in this poll on handling trade and advocating for American workers, and because the Democrats’ silence on trade contributed mightily to Trump’s victory in the Rustbelt states and to Democrats’ ongoing disadvantage in handling the economy in public polling. Progressives must communicate they are fighting for American jobs, for raising incomes and wages and for putting the interests of American workers before corporations who shaped NAFTA and are now using it to accelerate job outsourcing, which our research showed is viewed by voters as the greatest threat to America’s living standards. Fighting for the right major changes to NAFTA is broadly popular among Trump voters as well as the college educated and diverse Clinton voters who are more conflicted about trade. 
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