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National Surveys
Obama regains lead in the race: the best closing argument
Monday, October 22 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.ecn.fq.102112.release.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]165 Kb
Download this file (dcor.ecnp.graphs.pol.102212.web.pdf)Graphs[ ]1083 Kb
Download this file (dcor.econ.10222012.memo.FINAL.pdf)Memo[ ]452 Kb

 The latest national likely voter survey for Democracy Corps has Obama back to his 49 to 46 percent lead, with 2 percent volunteering a third party candidate.  There are only 3 percent undecided.  While nearly all the other polls show a closer race, we have a lot of confidence in this survey.[1]  When all is said and done, this may be the year when polling had to catch up to the rapidly changing ways people communicate.  This survey is one-third cell phones and, as with all our likely voter surveys, it screens for participation and past vote, and the demographics reflect our conservative projection of likely voter demographics. 

Read more... [Obama regains lead in the race: the best closing argument]
 
Getting to the bold policy offer winning now requires
Monday, October 15 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.bold.graphs.101412.FINAL.web.pdf)Graphs[ ]1442 Kb
Download this file (dcor.fq.09182012.web2.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]196 Kb
Download this file (dcorps.bold.memo.101412.FINAL.pdf)Memo[ ]949 Kb

 

The campaign has reached a tipping point where we believe the president has to offer a bold narrative, policies and choice if he is to win re-election and get to a substantial enough victory that enables him to govern and face the great challenges ahead.  The first debate really did disrupt the race and presents a painful real-time test of what happens when the president tries to convince people of progress and offer a very modest vision of future change Voters are not looking for continuity but changes that help the average Joe.

Read more... [Getting to the bold policy offer winning now requires]
 
Winning ‘the 47 Percent’
Tuesday, October 09 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.wvwv.graphs.100912.LONG.FINAL.web.pdf)Graphs[ ]1457 Kb
Download this file (dcor.wvwv.memo.100912.final.pdf)Memo[ ]1477 Kb
Download this file (dcor.wvwv.natl.fq.093012.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]313 Kb

Single women, people of color and young people – the Rising American Electorate -- voted for change in 2008. To understand the dynamics of this election, Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund and Democracy Corps engaged in a three-phase research project with a particular emphasis on disengaged voters, Obama defectors, and unmarried women.  This project included a national survey, focus groups among unmarried and married women in Fairfax, Virginia and Columbus, Ohio, and dial meter research during the first presidential debate with follow up focus groups in Denver, Colorado.

What is clear is that unmarried women are more likely to engage and turn out when they are convinced they have a stake in the outcome of the election – and that there is a powerful argument that can be made to persuade them to show up and vote their values.

 

Read more... [Winning ‘the 47 Percent’]
 
New Poll with Resurgent Republic for NPR
Wednesday, October 03 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (npr.natl.fq.093012.FINAL.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]191 Kb

 

alt

This is the second bipartisan survey for NPR conducted by Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic.  It is based on a national likely voter survey of 800 interviews, with an over-sample of interviews in the battleground states.  The observations herein do not reflect the views of NPR or of Resurgent Republic.

This survey shows Obama with a 7-point lead nationally and 6 points ahead in the battleground. Obviously, that would be a stunning result, but we will wait to see whether this survey is an advance indicator, as the last one was.

 

Read more... [New Poll with Resurgent Republic for NPR]
 
Who are the 47%?
Wednesday, September 19 2012

 

Just who has Mitt Romney written off?  More than half of all Obama voters attended college.  More than half of all Obama voters are women.  And more than half consider themselves to be middle class.  

 
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