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National Surveys
Obama closing with a 4-point lead
Monday, November 05 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.natl.tracker.110512.WEB.pdf)Graphs[ ]790 Kb
Download this file (dcor.natl.tracker.fq.110412.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]211 Kb

The final national survey for Democracy Corps shows Obama ahead with a 4-point lead in the presidential race, 49 to 45 percent (actually, 3.8 points to be exact).  This represents a slight improvement since our last poll, which fielded before the final presidential debate, when we had Obama ahead by 2 points among all voters but tied among the smaller likely electorate.[1]  With the enthusiasm gap narrowed and Obama almost back to 2008 levels of support with the new Democratic base of unmarried women and minorities, the President has brought this back to the contours that gave him the lead before the debates – and that is enough to win, especially since he has a 7-point lead in the 12-state battleground for the presidency.  

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NPR Poll: Obama maintains lead in battleground in a close national contest
Monday, October 29 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (NPR Oct 2012 Toplines.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]201 Kb

The latest bi-partisan survey conducted for National Public Radio by Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic shows a close presidential race nationally, but with the President winning re-election.  His lead in the battleground states for an Electoral College majority narrowed from a 6-point margin in late September to a 4-point lead now.  With evidence of stable support in other state surveys, we do not see the election being settled by a close vote in any single state. 

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Obama regains lead in the race: the best closing argument
Monday, October 22 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.ecn.fq.102112.release.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]165 Kb
Download this file (dcor.ecnp.graphs.pol.102212.web.pdf)Graphs[ ]1083 Kb
Download this file (dcor.econ.10222012.memo.FINAL.pdf)Memo[ ]452 Kb

 The latest national likely voter survey for Democracy Corps has Obama back to his 49 to 46 percent lead, with 2 percent volunteering a third party candidate.  There are only 3 percent undecided.  While nearly all the other polls show a closer race, we have a lot of confidence in this survey.[1]  When all is said and done, this may be the year when polling had to catch up to the rapidly changing ways people communicate.  This survey is one-third cell phones and, as with all our likely voter surveys, it screens for participation and past vote, and the demographics reflect our conservative projection of likely voter demographics. 

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Getting to the bold policy offer winning now requires
Monday, October 15 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.bold.graphs.101412.FINAL.web.pdf)Graphs[ ]1442 Kb
Download this file (dcor.fq.09182012.web2.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]196 Kb
Download this file (dcorps.bold.memo.101412.FINAL.pdf)Memo[ ]949 Kb

 

The campaign has reached a tipping point where we believe the president has to offer a bold narrative, policies and choice if he is to win re-election and get to a substantial enough victory that enables him to govern and face the great challenges ahead.  The first debate really did disrupt the race and presents a painful real-time test of what happens when the president tries to convince people of progress and offer a very modest vision of future change Voters are not looking for continuity but changes that help the average Joe.

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Winning ‘the 47 Percent’
Tuesday, October 09 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.wvwv.graphs.100912.LONG.FINAL.web.pdf)Graphs[ ]1457 Kb
Download this file (dcor.wvwv.memo.100912.final.pdf)Memo[ ]1477 Kb
Download this file (dcor.wvwv.natl.fq.093012.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]313 Kb

Single women, people of color and young people – the Rising American Electorate -- voted for change in 2008. To understand the dynamics of this election, Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund and Democracy Corps engaged in a three-phase research project with a particular emphasis on disengaged voters, Obama defectors, and unmarried women.  This project included a national survey, focus groups among unmarried and married women in Fairfax, Virginia and Columbus, Ohio, and dial meter research during the first presidential debate with follow up focus groups in Denver, Colorado.

What is clear is that unmarried women are more likely to engage and turn out when they are convinced they have a stake in the outcome of the election – and that there is a powerful argument that can be made to persuade them to show up and vote their values.

 

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