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National Surveys
And Voters Had a Lot to Say Too
Wednesday, November 07 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor pe 110712 final.pdf)Memo[ ]303 Kb

Last night was a good night for President Obama, Democrats, progressives and the country – and the voters had a lot to say about what determined their vote and what they want done to bring change. 

 

Read more... [And Voters Had a Lot to Say Too]
 
Obama closing with a 4-point lead
Monday, November 05 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.natl.tracker.110512.WEB.pdf)Graphs[ ]790 Kb
Download this file (dcor.natl.tracker.fq.110412.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]211 Kb

The final national survey for Democracy Corps shows Obama ahead with a 4-point lead in the presidential race, 49 to 45 percent (actually, 3.8 points to be exact).  This represents a slight improvement since our last poll, which fielded before the final presidential debate, when we had Obama ahead by 2 points among all voters but tied among the smaller likely electorate.[1]  With the enthusiasm gap narrowed and Obama almost back to 2008 levels of support with the new Democratic base of unmarried women and minorities, the President has brought this back to the contours that gave him the lead before the debates – and that is enough to win, especially since he has a 7-point lead in the 12-state battleground for the presidency.  

Read more... [Obama closing with a 4-point lead]
 
NPR Poll: Obama maintains lead in battleground in a close national contest
Monday, October 29 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (NPR Oct 2012 Toplines.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]201 Kb

The latest bi-partisan survey conducted for National Public Radio by Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic shows a close presidential race nationally, but with the President winning re-election.  His lead in the battleground states for an Electoral College majority narrowed from a 6-point margin in late September to a 4-point lead now.  With evidence of stable support in other state surveys, we do not see the election being settled by a close vote in any single state. 

Read more... [NPR Poll: Obama maintains lead in battleground in a close national contest]
 
Obama regains lead in the race: the best closing argument
Monday, October 22 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.ecn.fq.102112.release.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]165 Kb
Download this file (dcor.ecnp.graphs.pol.102212.web.pdf)Graphs[ ]1083 Kb
Download this file (dcor.econ.10222012.memo.FINAL.pdf)Memo[ ]452 Kb

 The latest national likely voter survey for Democracy Corps has Obama back to his 49 to 46 percent lead, with 2 percent volunteering a third party candidate.  There are only 3 percent undecided.  While nearly all the other polls show a closer race, we have a lot of confidence in this survey.[1]  When all is said and done, this may be the year when polling had to catch up to the rapidly changing ways people communicate.  This survey is one-third cell phones and, as with all our likely voter surveys, it screens for participation and past vote, and the demographics reflect our conservative projection of likely voter demographics. 

Read more... [Obama regains lead in the race: the best closing argument]
 
Getting to the bold policy offer winning now requires
Monday, October 15 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.bold.graphs.101412.FINAL.web.pdf)Graphs[ ]1442 Kb
Download this file (dcor.fq.09182012.web2.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]196 Kb
Download this file (dcorps.bold.memo.101412.FINAL.pdf)Memo[ ]949 Kb

 

The campaign has reached a tipping point where we believe the president has to offer a bold narrative, policies and choice if he is to win re-election and get to a substantial enough victory that enables him to govern and face the great challenges ahead.  The first debate really did disrupt the race and presents a painful real-time test of what happens when the president tries to convince people of progress and offer a very modest vision of future change Voters are not looking for continuity but changes that help the average Joe.

Read more... [Getting to the bold policy offer winning now requires]
 
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