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2018 at a Breaking Point? Not Yet, Says New Poll
Wednesday, January 24 2018
Attachments:
Download this file (Dcorp National Phone Pre-Test 011118 FQ_for release.pdf)Toplines: January 2018 National RV Phone Survey[ ]159 Kb69 Downloads
Download this file (Dcorps_RAE+ Web Panel_Wave 3_ 011118_FQ_for release.pdf)Toplines: January 2018 RAE+ Web Panel Survey[ ]311 Kb60 Downloads
Download this file (Dcor_WV_RAE Panel_Wave 3_Deck_1.24.18_for release.pdf)Deck: 2018 at a Breaking Point?[ ]1222 Kb59 Downloads
Download this file (Dcor_WV_RAE Panel_Wave 3_Memo_1.24.2018_for release.pdf)Memo: 2018 at a Breaking Point? [ ]475 Kb69 Downloads

Over the last three months, Democrats have doubled their margin in the generic congressional ballot to an 11-point advantage among registered voters and an 8-point lead among likely voters nationally. That is near the 9-point margin Democrats won in 2006 when they flipped 30 congressional seats and retook the majority, though reapportionment makes it harder to cross that threshold today. Democrats sit at the edge of a wave thanks to the impressive vote gains among the Rising American Electorate (minorities, unmarried women and millennials) and women with college degrees - gains witnessed in so many special elections in 2017. But the wave also depends on the turnout of the Rising American Electorate whose enthusiasm for voting is falling in this new polling on behalf of WVWVAF. Democrats can both build their margins and interest in voting across the RAE base when they (1) make the election about a rejection of trickle-down, (2) target Trump instead of the GOP, (3) attack him for betraying his promise to end politics as usual, (4) and articulate a disruptive economic change message.

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