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June 18, 2018

Riling Up the Base May Backfire on...

This article by Stanley Greenberg first appeared on The New York Times website on June 18, 2018.   Political commentators and strategists write...
June 20, 2018

The Broad Support for Taxing the...

By Stanley Greenberg for the Summer 2018 issue of The American Prospect magazine. (This article originally appeared online on June 20,...
July 13, 2018

Trump & GOP Strategy Make Blue...

Pundits built a new conventional wisdom that included higher job approval ratings for President Donald Trump due to the tax cuts and strong economy...

National Surveys
Trump-GOP tax cut integral to Democratic midterm message
Thursday, June 14 2018

The Trump-GOP tax cut must be the centerpiece of any Democratic midterm message, in the same way that Obamacare was the foundation for the Republican wave in 2010. That is the clear conclusion of the third phase of research on the new tax cut and the economy from Democracy Corps and AFT. This national web-survey finds the tax cut has become a more motivating election issue for its opponents than for its supporters. Moreover, the more Democratic messages emphasize the GOP’s “tax scam for the rich” and vow to raise taxes on the rich and corporations to fund investments, the greater the opposition to the tax cut and the growth in the Democratic congressional margin and turnout advantage.

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The Democratic opportunity on the economy & tax cuts
Wednesday, April 11 2018

The midterm election is starting to break against Donald Trump and the Republican Party in profound ways and running on the economy and the new tax cut helps further solidify advantages for Democrats.This is according to a new AFT-Democracy Corps national phone poll and deep focus group research on the economy, President Trump, the new tax cuts, and strategies for 2018. Conservatives and pundits are hoping two factors mitigate against the realization of a Democratic wave: one is the strength of the macro-economy and the other is the new tax cut, both of which they believe are producing real benefits for ordinary Americans. Based on our qualitative and quantitative research, AFT and Democracy Corps think that assumption is wrong. But only if Democrats embrace the fact that the economy is not producing for working and middle class people whose wage increases are not keeping up with rising costs, particularly the cost of health care; if they make clear this tax cut is ‘rigged for the rich’ at the expense of everyone else and that the huge cost of the tax cuts means less investment in education, healthcare and infrastructure and imminent cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

READ THE MESSAGE MEMO

VIEW THE PRESENTATION

VIEW THE TOPLINES

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2018 at a Breaking Point? Not Yet, Says New Poll
Wednesday, January 24 2018

Over the last three months, Democrats have doubled their margin in the generic congressional ballot to an 11-point advantage among registered voters and an 8-point lead among likely voters nationally. That is near the 9-point margin Democrats won in 2006 when they flipped 30 congressional seats and retook the majority, though reapportionment makes it harder to cross that threshold today. Democrats sit at the edge of a wave thanks to the impressive vote gains among the Rising American Electorate (minorities, unmarried women and millennials) and women with college degrees - gains witnessed in so many special elections in 2017. But the wave also depends on the turnout of the Rising American Electorate whose enthusiasm for voting is falling in this new polling on behalf of WVWVAF. Democrats can both build their margins and interest in voting across the RAE base when they (1) make the election about a rejection of trickle-down, (2) target Trump instead of the GOP, (3) attack him for betraying his promise to end politics as usual, (4) and articulate a disruptive economic change message.

READ THE FULL REPORT

VIEW THE PRESENTATION

 
Disruptive changes among key voters in 2017
Thursday, November 02 2017

There are big forces at work in the coming year that could produce an earthquake of an off-year election, including a parade of indictments, the GOP civil war playing out in Republican primaries, a congressional impasse on everything, a wrong track number nearing 75 percent and a presidential job approval that does not get over 40 percent – as we now report in this second wave of Democracy Corps’ phone poll and panel program on behalf of Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund. African Americans are holding solid on key measures and ready to play their part; unmarried women can be readily stirred; and millennials, who are more disengaged than any other group, can be engaged if leaders and organizations get their act together. Democrats may push the generic ballot into double-digits with a promise to disrupt the status quo, a powerful economic change message, a focus on the unpopular Republican Congress, and attacks on the Republicans for their plans for health care and to cut Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security.

READ THE FULL REPORT

VIEW THE PRESENTATION

 
The Country Hates the GOP Congress: Why Don't Democrats Have a Knock-out Lead?
Monday, October 23 2017

About 9 months into his presidency, Donald Trump has settled into a historically weak job approval of 41 percent, well below his presidential vote, and with the strong disapproval over 45 percent of voters. He remains an unrepentant divider which pervades all political discourse.

Yet the most hated politicians are the Republicans in Congress, and perhaps they ought to be more of the focus as they are on the ballot in 2018. Mitch McConnell is the least popular congressional leader in Democracy Corps’ polling, followed by Speaker Ryan. Voters know that the Republicans are in charge in Congress and these are the poster children. So why do the Democrats not enjoy a stronger lead in the ballot?

 

 
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