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October 18, 2017

Democrats Need to Lead the Fight...

This op-ed appeared in The Huffington Post on October 18, 2017.   Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular with the American people, and his...
October 20, 2017

How Progressives Can Position on...

Trade stands out from every other policy issue because Donald Trump’s unhappiness with the status quo is shared by virtually all progressive advocacy...
September 27, 2017

NAFTA Renegotiation Requires...

Trump’s unexpected victory has disrupted progressive strategies to dominate this period, but no area has been disrupted more than trade. No other area...

National Surveys
How Progressives Can Position on NAFTA Renegotiation
Friday, October 20 2017
Trade stands out from every other policy issue because Donald Trump’s unhappiness with the status quo is shared by virtually all progressive advocacy groups and nearly all Democratic Members of Congress. It is urgent for progressives to engage on trade because Trump has triggered the renegotiation of NAFTA, because he wins high marks in this poll on handling trade and advocating for American workers, and because the Democrats’ silence on trade contributed mightily to Trump’s victory in the Rustbelt states and to Democrats’ ongoing disadvantage in handling the economy in public polling. Progressives must communicate they are fighting for American jobs, for raising incomes and wages and for putting the interests of American workers before corporations who shaped NAFTA and are now using it to accelerate job outsourcing, which our research showed is viewed by voters as the greatest threat to America’s living standards. Fighting for the right major changes to NAFTA is broadly popular among Trump voters as well as the college educated and diverse Clinton voters who are more conflicted about trade. 
 
Democrats Need to Lead the Fight for a Better NAFTA
Wednesday, October 18 2017
This op-ed appeared in The Huffington Post on October 18, 2017.
 
Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular with the American people, and his recent actions to undermine health care and pursuit of trickle-down tax cuts will surely make matters worse. But the round of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations that occurred last week in Washington reminds us that there is an area where Trump’s job performance is relatively strong. According to Democracy Corps’ most recent poll, 46 percent of registered voters approve of his “handling of trade agreements with other countries,” 51 percent, how he is “putting American workers ahead of the interests of big corporations” and 60 percent, “keeping jobs in the United States.” That is made possible, in part by the relative silence of Democrats on these issues (and in spite of committed progressive trade advocates among America’s unions and consumer and environmental organizations.) 
 
 
 
Tools for a Wave in 2018
Thursday, July 13 2017

The first wave of Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund’s ongoing web-panel of persuasion and turnout targets with simultaneous national phone survey conducted by Democracy Corps provides progressive leaders and allies with credible tools to turn 2018 into a disruptive wave election.[1]   

READ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OR FULL MEMO

VIEW PRESENTATION

Wave elections come when one party is fully consolidated, reacting with intensity and turning out disproportionately; when the other party is divided and demoralized; and when independents react against that party’s overreach. The potential for such conditions is already strongly evident in this first wave of research:

  • The Democratic house margin of 7 points is very close to what’s needed for control, but likely needs to reach 10 points.
  • Democrats and key parts of the Democratic base – African Americans, Hispanics, unmarried women and millennials are intensely hostile to Trump and are supporting Democrats for Congress with impressive margins and certainty.
  • Independents are deeply opposed to the GOP health care bills and Trump and break heavily for Democrats in the congressional ballot after supporting Trump and Republicans in past years.
  • Republicans are not supporting Trump or their candidates with the same level of intensity and 20 percent of RAE+ Trump voters think he is out of touch with working with people.

Critically, battling against health care with the strongest arguments and for an economy that works for the middle class, with clarity about our values, widens the gap on intention to vote and intensity of support between those voting for the Democrat and those voting for the Republican.

READ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OR FULL MEMO

VIEW PRESENTATION


[1] This is the first in a series of three waves of l,000 national registered voter phone surveys with accompanying 4,000 registered voter web-surveys among a panel of minorities, millennials, unmarried women and white non-college educated women (the RAE+).The national phone survey of 1,000 voter-file matched registered voters with 65 percent of respondents reached on cell phones was conducted May 21-June 5, 2017. The voter-file matched RAE+ panel of 4,000 registered voters was conducted online May 31-June 13, 2017.  

 
Three pieces of advice for taking on the GOP health care bill
Friday, June 23 2017

New Democracy Corps surveys on behalf of Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund show a country deeply opposed to the health care plan passed by the House and now mirrored in the version under discussion in the US Senate.[1]  Opposition to the GOP health care bill outpaces support two-to-one with registered and likely 2018 voters and independents nationally, with almost half of the country opposing it “strongly.” But with the right information and lines of attack, Democrats can broaden and deepen opposition to the GOP replacement plan bill even further. What do voters dislike about the proposed replacement and what lines of attack have the greatest potential impact? For that, we tested the reactions of a 4,000 registered voter sample of African Americans, Hispanics, unmarried women, millennials and white working class women.  These are voters who have disappointed Democrats to varying degrees in terms of turnout and vote, particularly in off-years but also in 2016 when some of them gave a plurality of their votes to Trump. Here are our three pieces of advice for building a backlash against the GOP health care bill.

READ THE NOTE HERE.

 
The unheard winning economic agenda: report from Roosevelt Institute election night poll
Tuesday, November 15 2016
Attachments:
Download this file (Dcorps_PE_RTR_Presentation_for release.pdf)Presentation[ ]1054 Kb
Download this file (Dcor_PE_RTR_Ealert_11.15.2016_for release.pdf)Memo[ ]831 Kb
Download this file (Democracy Corps Post Elect_RTR_110916 FQ.pdf)Toplines[ ]262 Kb

Last week, the American people were determined to vote for change – change that would crash the dominance of special interests over government and bring bold economic policies so the economy would work for everyone, not just the wealthy and well-connected. That narrative underlines why Donald Trump received an audience and why he is now the president-elect.[1]

It does not explain, however, why Hillary Clinton failed to win the presidency on November 8th. The Comey letter re-opened the vote decision for some people and critically impacted the race, but the Clinton campaign moved from running on change to running on continuity. She fully articulated an economic change message throughout the three debates and offered her plans for change, but after the Comey F.B.I. letter, the campaign no longer spoke of change, the economy and her bold plans for the future. In the final weeks, the Clinton campaign conceded the economy and change to Trump, while seeking to make him personally unacceptable. Frustratingly, it closed the campaign appealing for unity, promising to promote opportunity and to “build on the progress” of the Obama presidency. That is why key groups of voters moved to Trump in the Rust Belt and why the turnout of many base groups was so disappointing in the end.

Understanding what really happened allows one to see how ready voters were to vote for a “rewrite the rules” economic message, how white working class women stuck with Clinton until she abandoned that message, and how much the new Rising American Electorate – from millennials to unmarried women to minority voters – required an economic change offer, not identity politics, to stay fulling engaged.

And thus it should not be surprising that the electorate that put Donald Trump in the White House today wants bold, not incremental change. This is a country that still wants deep and long-term investments in America’s infrastructure and is ready to invest in our under-served communities. It wants to limit corporate power that reduces competition and innovation and reform trade, starting with a dramatic ability to prosecute and enforce trade laws.

READ THE FULL MEMO

VIEW THE PRESENTATION

 


[1] This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with a high stated intention of voting in 2016.  In addition to a 900 voter base sample, oversamples of 200 Rising American Electorate voters (unmarried women, minorities and millennials) and 200 battleground state voters (AZ, FL, OH, IA, NC, NV, NH, PA, VA, WI) were included. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.27 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.  Of the 1,300 respondents, 65 percent were interviewed via cell phone in order to accurately sample the American electorate.

The Roosevelt Institute is a non-partisan organization. In 2015, the Institute released a report with a bold economic argument and agenda titled, Rewriting the Rules of the American EconomyRewriting the Rules was promoted widely, including to all presidential candidates of both major parties. The Institute has also released a stream of opinion research -- to that same audience and beyond -- to demonstrate popular support for this kind of agenda. This final post-election survey was designed to test how the message was utilized or ultimately performed.

 
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