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October 20, 2014

Louisiana Attacks

Democracy Corps' recent poll of white persuadable voters in Louisiana shows that it is possible to shift white voters late in the race and in a run-off...
October 31, 2014

Millennials Demand Action on...

A new survey[1] of presidential-year millennial voters in four critical battleground states, conducted for NextGen Climate and Democracy Corps by...
October 16, 2014

Impacting the White Electorate in...

A new Democracy Corps survey of likely white voters in Louisiana shows that while Mary Landrieu is in a difficult position and most likely trailing...

National Surveys
Tied national congressional ballot in our poll of off-year voters: GOP still trails by 4 points in presidential electorate
Friday, October 24 2014
Attachments:
Download this file (forweb102114fq.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]130 Kb

Two weeks before election day, the generic Congressional ballot remains deadlocked at 46 percent among off-year 2014 voters, just slightly outperforming recent polling averages and far outpacing 2010 national exit polling that showed Democrats losing the national House ballot 45-53 percent.  Looking ahead, Democrats remain well-positioned for 2016—among the 2012 Presidential electorate, a generic Democratic candidate leads their Republican counterpart by 4 points, 47-43 percent.

 

While Democrats still trail among Independent voters, the current 39-44 percent deficit among this key bloc is considerably smaller than at any point in our polling since early 2013.  Unlike 2010, when Democrats lost the national House vote among women, they currently maintain a 49-41 percent advantage with women voters. 

 

Democrats have made real gains in consolidating the Rising American Electorate coalition that had previously been underperforming.  In our last survey in June, Democrats led among the RAE 55-36 percent, a net 6 points off their 2010 performance among this bloc.  The vote among the RAE now stands at 63-28 percent, putting the Democratic vote share right at 2010 levels (62 percent) with this group.  This is driven in part by improvement among minority voters (72-20 percent now; 67-24 percent in June), but largely via shift among unmarried women (63-28 percent now; 54-37 percent in June).

 

This is according to Democracy Corps’ final national survey of the 2014 cycle conducted October 16-21, in which we have shifted methodologies to provide the most accurate assessment of the national electorate possible.  While we have historically conducted our national surveys using Random Digit Dialing (RDD), we conducted this survey using Registration Based Sampling (RBS) off of the Catalist voter file.  This allows us to both sample and define off-year and presidential year voters using voter history data from the file instead of relying on self-reported vote history and vote intention which academic studies and long real-world experience have shown are significantly less accurate.  The sample for this survey consisted of voters who voted in the 2012 election or who registered after it.  Perhaps more important, our definition of likely voters is based on a combination of vote history from the voter file and stated vote intention, which our internal analysis has shown in the most accurate prediction of actual likelihood of voting.  Listed RBS sampling also has the added benefit of allowing us to more effectively achieve representative demographics prior to weighting by allowing us to stratify our sample based on demographic data that is listed on the file.  We called 50 percent of voters on cell phones, as we have done in the past.

 

 
Women's Economic Agenda: Powerful Impact on Vote and Turnout in 2014
Wednesday, June 25 2014
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor wv graphs 062414 v3.pdf)Graphs[ ]1737 Kb
Download this file (dcor wv memo 062514 v5.pdf)Memo[ ]623 Kb
Download this file (dcor061514_wvwv_fq_WEB1.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire [ ]204 Kb

This is a turning point in the 2014 off-year elections when parties, candidates, and leaders can recognize how central are unmarried women and the Rising American Electorate to the Democrats’ chances and how clear a path there is to get their votes and get them to vote. This is the main finding of the most recent survey and focus groups from Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund.  This report should be a call to arms, a populist call to arms that sets up the stakes in these terms:

It's critical to vote in November. If Republicans win, big money will get its way, and even more hard-working women and men will be drowning. You can change that. We have an economic plan, including a women’s economic agenda. When the middle class succeeds, America succeeds.

This populist set-up, along with the “in-your-shoes” narrative about people’s economic struggles, and a policy agenda that includes equal pay and equal health insurance, help for working mothers and help with better jobs through raised minimum wage and more affordable college, shifts the race from one where Democrats trail by 1 point to one in which they are ahead by 3.  It also dramatically increases the turnout and Democratic preference of unmarried voters.  

Read the full memo

See the graphs

Key findings:

  • Unmarried women can make or break the election in 2014.
     
  • When 2014 likely voters are exposed to empathetic “in your shoes” messaging and an economic agenda for working women and men, it shifts the vote from -1 to +3.
     
  • When unmarried women are exposed to the same message framework, they shift from +17 Democratic margin to +31 and their turnout increases by 10 points.
     
  • The economic agenda for working women and men includes a cluster of powerful policies on helping working mothers, equal pay and equal health insurance, raising the minimum wage and making college affordable to get to better jobs. 
     
  • GOP attitude toward equal pay has most turnout effect and GOP attacks on Obamacare and economic policies increase Democratic turnout.
     
  • The national congressional race is tied and stable, with Democrats held back by modest vote among base RAE and unmarried women. 
     
  • Unmarried women are the main story because they are reporting modest turnout intentions and the vote among this group is now close to 2010 level. But they clearly can be moved and mobilized by “in your shoes” messaging.
     
  • Two contextual factors: 1. Wrong track and modest job approval for the president, and 2. Increased hostility towards Republicans and Congress.  Which will come to matter more will tell us how the race breaks.
     
  • Powerful closing rationale: if Republicans win, the people with money win and more working men and women will be drowning.

 

 

 
Broad Bi-Partisan Consensus Supports Reforms to Supreme Court
Wednesday, May 07 2014

Americans View Court as too Political

A new poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps reveals that the Supreme Court has very lackluster job performance ratings and is viewed as overly political by Americans, who support a wide range of reforms for our nation’s highest court.  Perhaps most remarkably, even in a time of intense political polarization there is broad cross-partisan consensus on these issues. 

Once one of the country's more trusted institutions, today just 35 percent give the court a positive job performance rating and a strong majority believe that Justices are influenced more by their own personal beliefs and political leanings than by a strict legal analysis. 

Two recent decisions on campaign finance have only served to intensify Americans' dissatisfaction with the Court. The Citizens United ruling is deeply unpopular across every partisan and demographic group while Americans of nearly every stripe believe the recent McCutcheon ruling will make our political system more corrupt - again with broad consensus across Democrats, Independents, and Republicans.

This survey also found overwhelming approval for a series of seven reforms to the Court, with large, cross-partisan majorities supporting such proposals as requiring the court to disclose any outside activities, abolishing lifetime appointments in favor of set terms and allowing televisions cameras to film the Court’s proceedings.           

Read the full memo here.   

 
The Urgent Economic Narrative for 2014
Tuesday, April 15 2014

 

The economy is still the main issue in the 2014 election, impacting the mood of the country, driving likely voter turnout, and defining what is at stake. With voters uncertain of President Obama and the Democrats’ direction on the economy, Democratic voters are 7 points less likely than Republicans to say they are ‘almost certain to vote’ in the off-year election in November.

But Democrats can change that equation if they show they understand people’s financial struggles, get the narrative right, push back against an economy that works only for the 1 percent, and offer an economic agenda that puts working women first.  

These are the key elements of the working women’s agenda – they drive Democratic support and increase turnout, not just among working women, but among a broad range of voters.

Read the full memo here

 

 
Framing the Women's Economic Agenda for Greatest 2014 Effect
Tuesday, April 08 2014

Getting it right has power to impact the vote and turnout

Unmarried women made up a quarter of the electorate in 2012 and gave two thirds of their votes to President Obama.  However, even as the fiscal choices made by Congress have significant impact on their personal economies, these voters are vulnerable to non-voting in off-year elections.  When we asked last March whether the national political debates were addressing the issues most important to them, 60 percent of unmarried women said, “no,” and did so with real intensity.  As we learned in 2010, these voters are critical to Democrats’ fortunes, but they are unlikely to vote, and less likely to give Democrats big margins, if Democrats are not laser focused on the issues that matter most to them.

To get at these issues, Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund began conducting extensive research on what motivates these voters to turn out and what motivates them to vote for Democrats.  When we first started this project, we learned that unmarried women were most energized and moved to vote for Democrats by a set of policies that addressed pocketbook economic issues. Since then, we have been talking to women all around the country to hone this agenda and develop strategic messages around these policies.  This week we will be releasing results from a new national survey on the women’s economic agenda.  There are several critical new findings from this survey, which should serve to focus the work of leaders dedicated to advancing these policies.  

Read the full memo here. 

See the graphs here.

 

 
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