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November 04, 2017

The Democratic Civil War Is...

By Susan Glasser. This article appeared in The New Yorker on November 1, 2017. On the morning of October 5th, President Trump was on one of his...
October 18, 2017

Democrats Need to Lead the Fight...

This op-ed appeared in The Huffington Post on October 18, 2017.   Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular with the American people, and his...
November 02, 2017

Disruptive changes among key...

There are big forces at work in the coming year that could produce an earthquake of an off-year election, including a parade of indictments, the GOP...

National Surveys
Disruptive changes among key voters in 2017
Thursday, November 02 2017

There are big forces at work in the coming year that could produce an earthquake of an off-year election, including a parade of indictments, the GOP civil war playing out in Republican primaries, a congressional impasse on everything, a wrong track number nearing 75 percent and a presidential job approval that does not get over 40 percent – as we now report in this second wave of Democracy Corps’ phone poll and panel program on behalf of Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund. African Americans are holding solid on key measures and ready to play their part; unmarried women can be readily stirred; and millennials, who are more disengaged than any other group, can be engaged if leaders and organizations get their act together. Democrats may push the generic ballot into double-digits with a promise to disrupt the status quo, a powerful economic change message, a focus on the unpopular Republican Congress, and attacks on the Republicans for their plans for health care and to cut Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security.

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The Country Hates the GOP Congress: Why Don't Democrats Have a Knock-out Lead?
Monday, October 23 2017

About 9 months into his presidency, Donald Trump has settled into a historically weak job approval of 41 percent, well below his presidential vote, and with the strong disapproval over 45 percent of voters. He remains an unrepentant divider which pervades all political discourse.

Yet the most hated politicians are the Republicans in Congress, and perhaps they ought to be more of the focus as they are on the ballot in 2018. Mitch McConnell is the least popular congressional leader in Democracy Corps’ polling, followed by Speaker Ryan. Voters know that the Republicans are in charge in Congress and these are the poster children. So why do the Democrats not enjoy a stronger lead in the ballot?

 

 
How Progressives Can Position on NAFTA Renegotiation
Friday, October 20 2017
Trade stands out from every other policy issue because Donald Trump’s unhappiness with the status quo is shared by virtually all progressive advocacy groups and nearly all Democratic Members of Congress. It is urgent for progressives to engage on trade because Trump has triggered the renegotiation of NAFTA, because he wins high marks in this poll on handling trade and advocating for American workers, and because the Democrats’ silence on trade contributed mightily to Trump’s victory in the Rustbelt states and to Democrats’ ongoing disadvantage in handling the economy in public polling. Progressives must communicate they are fighting for American jobs, for raising incomes and wages and for putting the interests of American workers before corporations who shaped NAFTA and are now using it to accelerate job outsourcing, which our research showed is viewed by voters as the greatest threat to America’s living standards. Fighting for the right major changes to NAFTA is broadly popular among Trump voters as well as the college educated and diverse Clinton voters who are more conflicted about trade. 
 
Democrats Need to Lead the Fight for a Better NAFTA
Wednesday, October 18 2017
This op-ed appeared in The Huffington Post on October 18, 2017.
 
Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular with the American people, and his recent actions to undermine health care and pursuit of trickle-down tax cuts will surely make matters worse. But the round of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations that occurred last week in Washington reminds us that there is an area where Trump’s job performance is relatively strong. According to Democracy Corps’ most recent poll, 46 percent of registered voters approve of his “handling of trade agreements with other countries,” 51 percent, how he is “putting American workers ahead of the interests of big corporations” and 60 percent, “keeping jobs in the United States.” That is made possible, in part by the relative silence of Democrats on these issues (and in spite of committed progressive trade advocates among America’s unions and consumer and environmental organizations.) 
 
 
 
Tools for a Wave in 2018
Thursday, July 13 2017

The first wave of Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund’s ongoing web-panel of persuasion and turnout targets with simultaneous national phone survey conducted by Democracy Corps provides progressive leaders and allies with credible tools to turn 2018 into a disruptive wave election.[1]   

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VIEW PRESENTATION

Wave elections come when one party is fully consolidated, reacting with intensity and turning out disproportionately; when the other party is divided and demoralized; and when independents react against that party’s overreach. The potential for such conditions is already strongly evident in this first wave of research:

  • The Democratic house margin of 7 points is very close to what’s needed for control, but likely needs to reach 10 points.
  • Democrats and key parts of the Democratic base – African Americans, Hispanics, unmarried women and millennials are intensely hostile to Trump and are supporting Democrats for Congress with impressive margins and certainty.
  • Independents are deeply opposed to the GOP health care bills and Trump and break heavily for Democrats in the congressional ballot after supporting Trump and Republicans in past years.
  • Republicans are not supporting Trump or their candidates with the same level of intensity and 20 percent of RAE+ Trump voters think he is out of touch with working with people.

Critically, battling against health care with the strongest arguments and for an economy that works for the middle class, with clarity about our values, widens the gap on intention to vote and intensity of support between those voting for the Democrat and those voting for the Republican.

READ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OR FULL MEMO

VIEW PRESENTATION


[1] This is the first in a series of three waves of l,000 national registered voter phone surveys with accompanying 4,000 registered voter web-surveys among a panel of minorities, millennials, unmarried women and white non-college educated women (the RAE+).The national phone survey of 1,000 voter-file matched registered voters with 65 percent of respondents reached on cell phones was conducted May 21-June 5, 2017. The voter-file matched RAE+ panel of 4,000 registered voters was conducted online May 31-June 13, 2017.  

 
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