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April 15, 2014

The Urgent Economic Narrative for...

  The economy is still the main issue in the 2014 election, impacting the mood of the country, driving likely voter turnout, and defining what...
April 04, 2014

Tipping Point on 2014 and The...

Report on national survey of 2014 electorate Whether we are at a tipping point in the 2014 election depends, first, on whether Democrats can get to...
April 08, 2014

Framing the Women's Economic...

Getting it right has power to impact the vote and turnout Unmarried women made up a quarter of the electorate in 2012 and gave two thirds of their...

National Surveys
The Urgent Economic Narrative for 2014
Tuesday, April 15 2014

 

The economy is still the main issue in the 2014 election, impacting the mood of the country, driving likely voter turnout, and defining what is at stake. With voters uncertain of President Obama and the Democrats’ direction on the economy, Democratic voters are 7 points less likely than Republicans to say they are ‘almost certain to vote’ in the off-year election in November.

But Democrats can change that equation if they show they understand people’s financial struggles, get the narrative right, push back against an economy that works only for the 1 percent, and offer an economic agenda that puts working women first.  

These are the key elements of the working women’s agenda – they drive Democratic support and increase turnout, not just among working women, but among a broad range of voters.

Read the full memo here

 

 
Framing the Women's Economic Agenda for Greatest 2014 Effect
Tuesday, April 08 2014

Getting it right has power to impact the vote and turnout

Unmarried women made up a quarter of the electorate in 2012 and gave two thirds of their votes to President Obama.  However, even as the fiscal choices made by Congress have significant impact on their personal economies, these voters are vulnerable to non-voting in off-year elections.  When we asked last March whether the national political debates were addressing the issues most important to them, 60 percent of unmarried women said, “no,” and did so with real intensity.  As we learned in 2010, these voters are critical to Democrats’ fortunes, but they are unlikely to vote, and less likely to give Democrats big margins, if Democrats are not laser focused on the issues that matter most to them.

To get at these issues, Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund began conducting extensive research on what motivates these voters to turn out and what motivates them to vote for Democrats.  When we first started this project, we learned that unmarried women were most energized and moved to vote for Democrats by a set of policies that addressed pocketbook economic issues. Since then, we have been talking to women all around the country to hone this agenda and develop strategic messages around these policies.  This week we will be releasing results from a new national survey on the women’s economic agenda.  There are several critical new findings from this survey, which should serve to focus the work of leaders dedicated to advancing these policies.  

Read the full memo here. 

See the graphs here.

 

 
Tipping Point on 2014 and The Affordable Care Act?
Friday, April 04 2014

Report on national survey of 2014 electorate

Whether we are at a tipping point in the 2014 election depends, first, on whether Democrats can get to a strong economic message-- and next week we will be releasing our results on the women’s economic agenda.  But it will depend further on whether the Affordable Care Act – now at a tipping point – is embraced with enthusiasm by its natural base of supporters and whether they become willing to defend its benefits against the threat of repeal at the ballot box. 

The Republicans have bet heavily on Obamacare's unpopularity, but that misreads the public's views on the Affordable Care Act.  The latest national survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund finds evidence that prompts us to urge the political class to re-examine its assumptions about the Affordable Care Act and about this being a Republican year.  

This is a base and genuine turnout issue for Republicans, but public judgment about the new law is dynamic and moving and could come to haunt the Republicans. Support for the law is rising, particularly among Democrats and minority voters.  Only a minority is opposed because this is big government and only a minority wants to repeal the law.

But to counter Republican intensity and turnout in this off-year, Democrats will have to feel just as strongly about the risks of repeal and the loss of benefits. In this poll, we find that a message on the really positive changes that would be lost if the law were repealed gets attention with these off-year voters – who do respond with heightened intensity. With more than 7.1 million successfully signing up through exchanges, voters could be at a tipping point – and Democrats need to making the right case.

That could impact turnout on the Democratic side and should prompt the political class to re-consider many of the dominant assumptions about the ACA and the 2014 election.

Key Findings

  • Just 44 percent now clearly oppose the Affordable Care Act because it goes too far.  By a 9-point margin (54 percent to 44 percent) voters support the ACA or wish it went further. 

 

  • Democratic base voters had displayed some ambivalence about the law—but because they worry that it does not go far enough.  Support is very high with the Rising American Electorate, probably the greatest beneficiaries of the law – but enthusiasm is a little tempered by uncertainty and a preference for changes that would have reduced the role of private insurance companies. As the law’s benefits become more visible, these voters may become more engaged to defend the reforms at the ballot box.

 

  • By significant margins, likely 2014 voters want the law implemented and fixed rather than repealed and replaced.   By a 9-point margin (53 percent to 44 percent), likely voters say implement the law rather than repeal it. These margins are much bigger among Democratic base voters—especially minorities, but including young people—who have been central to the public debate about the law’s successes and failures.

 

  • Most importantly, a Democratic message saying the law needs fixes but makes critical changes and offers major benefits bests the Republican message crafted by Resurgent Republic – the conservative counter-part to Democracy Corps. Likely voters choose this Democratic Affordable Care Act message over the Republican offer by 5 points. Critically, the Rising American Electorate favor Democrats’ message in this debate by 22 points, and do so with real intensity (half say they strongly favor this message over the Republican alternative).

 

 
New Poll for NPR says, be careful accepting conventional wisdom on The Affordable Care Act and 2014 being a Republican year
Thursday, April 03 2014

New Poll for NPR says, be careful accepting conventional wisdom on The Affordable Care Act and 2014 being a Republican year  

A new national poll of likely voters fielded by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and designed by Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic for National Public Radio shows the national congressional vote effectively tied, with Democrats ahead by 1 point, 44 percentto 43percent, among the 2014 likely electorate. In its analysis, Democracy Corps urges the political class to re-examine its assumptions about The Affordable Care Act and about this being a Republican year.  

The Republicans have bet heavily on Obamacare's unpopularity, but that misreads the public's views on the Affordable Care Act.  This is a base and turnout issue for Republicans but the public judgment is dynamic and moving and could come to haunt the Republicans.  When Democrats make the case for the very real benefits and the public thinks the Republicans really want to repeal the law, off-year voters notice.  With more than7.1 million successfully signing up through exchanges, voters could come to see the stakes.  That could impact turnout on the Democratic side.

 

Key Findings:

  • The Congressional vote is nowdead even(44 percent to 43 percent)among likely voters.  By 7 points, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to say they are certain to vote.

 

  • Democratic base groups (especially the Rising American Electorate of unmarried women, young people, and minorities) are not performing where they could be (both in turnout and support for Democrats) but that could move in the future. 

 

  • President Obama has a net negative approval with likely voters and low approval numbers among independents.  This is part of what is challenging, but in public polls, his approval has moved up from 42 percent to 44 percent and is at 46 percent in this poll.

 

  • The Republican Party and Republican Congress brands remain toxic.  Nearly three quarters (72 percent) of likely voters disapprove of the Republican House, half (48 percent) do so strongly.  Just a quarter (24 percent) approve. The Republican House now has a net negative -48 approval.

 

  • This poll finds that there has been a misreading of public opinion on the Affordable Care Act.  Among likely voters who say they oppose the law, 7 percent do so because it does not go far enough—this is especially concentrated among minorities.  Only about 45 percent of the electorate is really opposed because it represents big government. 

 

  • As a result, when the debate is between implementing or repealing the ACA, the intensity shifts towards implementing the law, so it is possible that Democrats will be able to turn the debate.

 

  • In this poll, we tested the best Republican argument on healthcare, written by Resurgent Republic, against a Democratic message which says the law needs fixes but makes critical changes.  Democrats win this debate by 5 points and with an advantage on intensity.  This should lead Democrats to rethink.

 

  • The Rising American Electorate favor Democrats’ message in this debate by 22 points, and do so with real intensity (half say they strongly favor this message over the Republican alternative). 

 

  • Over the coming week, we will be releasing more material with Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund about the role of the RAE and unmarried women in this election and the important messages and policies that move both turnout and performance among these groups.

 

54 percent support ACA

 
Keep in mind, Ted Cruz is mainstream in the Republican base.
Monday, October 21 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (100813_DCORPS_National_fq.cruz.pdf)100813_DCORPS_National_fq.cruz.pdf[ ]146 Kb

Keep in mind, Ted Cruz is mainstream in the Republican base.  According to the latest national survey conducted for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, which fielded just last week, Ted Cruz is right at the center of a Republican Party that is majority Tea Party and Evangelical.  Combined, these groups make up over half of Republican partisans, and comprise over 60 percent of the GOP when you include the religious observants.

Cruz is immensely popular with Tea Party adherents.  Among this group, 75 percent give him a positive rating and half give him an intensely positive rating (over 75 on our 100-point scale.)  His average rating among this group is a stunning 81.8 out of 100.  While he is less well known among Evangelical Republicans, he is no less popular among those who identify him—40 percent give him a positive rating, a third are intensely favorable toward him.  On average, Evangelicals give Cruz a rating of 75.9 out of 100.

By contrast, moderate Republicans, who make up just a quarter of the Republican Party, are split evenly—16 percent unfavorable, 18 percent favorable.  His average rating among Moderates is just 51.0. And among all voters in the US, he has a quite negative rating and is known to about half the electorate.  Just 18 percent of all voters give Cruz a favorable rating—and an average rating of just 39.7. 

But even as pundits label Cruz as “fringe,” it is critical to remember that this is only true when talking about the national electorate.  In his own party, there is nothing “fringe” about Ted Cruz.  He is right at the center. 

 

 
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