Most Popular

May 18, 2018

To win in 2018, Democrats must...

By Stanley Greenberg & Page Gardner for The Hill, May 18, 2018 With approval ratings of 42 percent for President Trump and a dismal 18 percent for...
May 03, 2018

New Message Platform for 2018’s...

Democrats sit at the edge of a landslide repudiation of President Trump and Republicans – in the Congress and states where they govern – in November....
November 04, 2017

The Democratic Civil War Is...

By Susan Glasser. This article appeared in The New Yorker on November 1, 2017. On the morning of October 5th, President Trump was on one of his...

Maximizing the Congressional Vote
Thursday, October 23 2008

Tags: battleground | democracy corps | Democrats | house | incumbents | Republican Party | Winnables

Attachments:
Access this URL (http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/congressional-targeting-102308.pdf)Memo[ ]56 Kb

The Democratic congressional candidates have made key gains in the fifty most vulnerable Republican seats over the last month, but an analysis of the almost 5,000 interviews shows that there are emerging targets that can tilt the balance further.

The Democratic congressional candidates have made key gains in the fifty most vulnerable Republican seats over the last month, but an analysis of the almost 5,000 interviews shows that there are emerging targets that can tilt the balance further. In our last survey in these Republican-held districts Obama is running ahead and is tied even in the bottom tier of most vulnerable seats. That creates a group of voters who currently support Obama but not the congressional Democratic candidate. With the partisan tide shifting, there is also a group of voters, called “Winnables" on our Voter Choice Scale - an algorithm that uses 8 questions to rate the probability that a voter will shift his or her vote before Election Day - that are most likely to switch to the Democratic candidate.