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Battleground Surveys
Seniors could decide this election
Tuesday, October 29 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (Battleground Frequency Questionnaire 102913.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]125 Kb

When all the dust is settled in the off-year elections, we may decide it was seniors who gave the Democrats their chance for a comeback.  We have flagged this growing trend before, but the pattern is now too consistent to ignore.  When Republicans swept Democrats in the 2010 off-year elections, they won seniors by 21 points.  Repeat, 21 points.  They lost white seniors by 24 points.  Just this past November, Republicans won seniors by 12 points in the vote for Congress. 

We will be releasing on Wednesday our congressional battleground poll – in the 49 most competitive Republican districts and 24 most competitive Democratic seats. When we do, pay attention to the seniors.  In the Republican battleground, the vote is tied among seniors and the Democratic candidate has gained 5 points among this group since June.  In the Democratic battleground, Democratic incumbents lead by 14 points among seniors and by 9 points (48 percent to 39 percent)among white seniors.

This is not unique to the battleground.  It reflects the results we have seen in all Democracy Corps’ national polls this year.  In the latest national conducted with Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, a Republican candidate for Congress leads by just 6 points (49 percent to 43 percent) among seniors, well below the GOP’s 21-point margin in the 2010 and 12-point margin in 2012 elections.

With seniors some of the most immediate beneficiaries of The Affordable Care Act, President Obama no longer on the ballot, and with Republicans seeking to make Medicare and Medicaid cuts, it is possible seniors are moving to a new place. 

 
Engaging confidently on health care reform
Tuesday, August 06 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.bg.hc.memo.080613.final.pdf)Memo[ ]594 Kb

Republicans will run on health care reform in 2014 and 2016, so get used to it. But do not believe that it will give them a better chance of securing their seats or the best shot at putting competitive Democratic seats in danger.  Democrats in the most rural and the strongest Romney seats will have to be inventive as usual, but Democrats have a lot to say on health care: fix it, don’t repeal it, don’t put the insurance companies back in charge and take your hands off Medicare.

Read more... [Engaging confidently on health care reform]
 
Not so fast: 2014 Congressional Battleground Very Competitive
Thursday, June 20 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor bg memo 062113 FINAL.pdf)Memo[June 2013 BG memo]945 Kb
Download this file (dcor.bg.fq.061313.public.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[FQ June 2013 Battleground]262 Kb
Download this file (dcor.bg.graphs.062013.v6.pdf)Graphs[June 2013 BG graphs]1487 Kb

The first Democracy Corps Congressional Battleground survey of the most competitive House races will challenge serious commentary and the informed presumptions about the 2014 election.  Analysts, pundits, and commentators have concluded that there will be fewer seats in play in 2014 and that neither party is likely to upset the current balance.  To be honest, this poll surprised us. It shows Democrats could at least replicate the net gain of 8 seats they achieved in 2012 – and that Republicans are exposed as the country tires of Tea Party gridlock, Obamacare repeal efforts, threats to Medicare and Social Security, and politicians protecting the richest.[1]  The parties’ strongest attacks, including on health care, produce big gains for Democrats – bigger shifts than we have seen in a long time.  In the past, that has been a precursor to future gains.

Read more... [Not so fast: 2014 Congressional Battleground Very Competitive]
 
In Congressional Battleground, Voters Intensely Concerned About Money in Politics
Monday, October 01 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.pcaf. bg.fq 092512.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]143 Kb
Download this file (dcor.pcaf.graphs.093012.FINAL.pdf)Graphs[ ]1491 Kb
Download this file (dcor.pcaf.memo.093012.v4.pdf)Memo[ ]1129 Kb

 

In this intensely partisan season, money in politics is one issue that breaks through the partisanship and the campaign media fog. This newbattleground survey, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Public Campaign Action Fund in the 54 most competitive congressional seats held by Republicans, finds that voters from both parties and all demographic groups are intensely concerned about the corruption of the democratic system.[1] By more than a two-to-one margin, voters say that the current system of “big donors and secret money…undermines democracy.” 

 

Read more... [In Congressional Battleground, Voters Intensely Concerned About Money in Politics]
 
100 Days Out: From Serious Vulnerability to a Wave Election
Sunday, August 05 2012
Attachments:
Download this file (072612_DcorpsBG_FQ.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]307 Kb
Download this file (DCorps_July_Battleground_Memo_final.pdf)Memo[ ]1420 Kb
Download this file (July Battleground Survey Graphs_final_v2.pdf)Graphs[ ]1732 Kb

Less than 100 days until the election, the latest battleground survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps shows Democrats with an advantage in the most vulnerable tier of Republican districts.  The first Democracy Corps survey of the reapportioned battleground shows Republican incumbents in serious and worsening trouble.  The 2012 campaign has just turned the corner on 100 days and the message of this survey could not be clearer: these 54 battleground Republicans are very vulnerable and many will lose their seats. 

Read more... [100 Days Out: From Serious Vulnerability to a Wave Election]
 
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