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Battleground Surveys
Tipping the Senate battleground states in the final month
Monday, October 06 2014

Tags: battleground | senate | wvwvaf

Attachments:
Download this file (dcor wv memo website 100614.pdf)Memo[ ]656 Kb
Download this file (WVWV graphs 100614 for web1.pdf)Graphs Pt. 1[ ]1855 Kb
Download this file (WVWV graphs 100614 for web2.pdf)Graph Pt. 2[ ]1209 Kb
Download this file (WVWV Web FQ 100514.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]236 Kb

For the first time in this election cycle, the WVWVAF-Democracy Corps Senate battleground shows a consistent move toward the Democrats across a broad range of indicators that suggest the Democrats are more likely to hold control of the U.S. Senate than not. This election is still on a knife-edge; the overall vote remains unchanged and many states are within a couple of points. But the underlying dynamics and key metrics have all moved away from the Republicans and some of these changes are dramatic. The context remains a battleground that Romney won by 8 points, though, Democrats are poised to hold on.

This is a unique and large scale survey for Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund. It includes a core battleground survey of 1,000 interviews and an additional 1,200 interviews conducted in the battleground states of North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia and Colorado. These surveys were completed on October 1 and were incorporated into the battleground.

The big story is that the Democratic campaigns have succeeded in making the candidates’ positions on women’s issues the second biggest reason voters are voting for the Democrat – after the economy, of course. At the same time, minority voters’ support for the Affordable Care Act has risen dramatically – and for them, the health care law has become the second largest factor in their vote.
The result is that those voting Democratic are as consolidated and as intent on voting as those voting for Republicans. That Republican advantage is now gone in the battleground.

A Democratic “in-your shoes” agenda for working women and men and strong populist message is beginning to become the dominant narrative, even in this very Republican battleground. But when Republicans are attacked on their opposition to equal pay and to women not being charged more for insurance, and when they are attacked on their use of unlimited secret money to keep taxes down for billionaires and CEOs, the race shifts from Republicans ahead by 2 points to Democrats ahead by 2. That gain is produced by even more gains among the Rising American Electorate, including unmarried women.

The reason why the battle has become less uphill is the improved position of the Democratic Party and Democratic incumbents, and the worsening standing of Republican candidates and Mitch McConnell. At the same time, the President’s approval rating has risen, and support for his handling of ISIS is strong. Support has risen for the Affordable Care Act. But perhaps as important, Republicans and conservative Republicans are not as strongly opposed to the President.

It all adds up to a final month where Democrats have the chance to take these gains a step further and hold on to their Senate majority.

 

“WVWVAF is a 501(c)(4) social welfare organization.  It participated in this survey to gather information about how to improve civic engagement of under-represented segments of the American population.”

 
Senate Battleground on a Knife-Edge, says our Bipartisan NPR Poll
Friday, October 03 2014

Tags: battleground | NPR | senate

Attachments:
Download this file (DCorps NPR 092414 FQ updated.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]185 Kb
Download this file (NPR graphs 093014.webversion.pdf)Graphs[ ]1565 Kb

Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republic conducted the latest bi-partisan NPR poll of the 12-state competitive Senate battleground.  This poll shows an incredibly stable race, but with emerging evidence to explain why Democratic incumbents and candidates are surprising people and keeping so many red-states very much in play.  The Democratic candidates have achieved a net positive job performance and a positive approval score 4 points above the President.  But the President too has seen his positive approval go up 3 points and he has a higher approval on handling ISIS.  Mitch McConnell is the most unpopular leader tested in the battleground and he is now as well-known as Harry Reid.

Most important, Democrats won the big message contrast tested for the first time in this NPR Senate battleground by 4 points – that is 7 points ahead of the margin in these seats.  It says the real message contest is tilting the seats toward Democrats.

That is apparent now in why people are voting for their candidates.  For Republicans, they are motivated by the economy, ISIS and foreign policy, and the new health care law.  Democrats are motivated by the economy, the candidates’ views on women’s issues and the new health care law.

Critically, the gap has closed on enthusiasm and intention to vote. Democratic and Republican voters are equally consolidate and determined to vote. 

Finally, the Republicans are being hurt by their approach to the Affordable Care Act. Only 42 percent are opposed to Obamacare because it is a big government solution and more spending.  With 10 percent in this conservative battleground looking for a government run, single-payer Canadian-style system, it is not surprising that the attacks on the Affordable Care Act are only for the base.  They have not hurt the Democratic candidates.

These races are on a knife-edge and have yet to break.  But they could.

Listen to the NPR story

 

 
An Idea Whose Time Has Come
Thursday, July 31 2014
Attachments:
Download this file (071614_DCOR_Senate_Battleground_FQ_EveryVoice.web.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire [ ]206 Kb
Download this file (dcor bg graphs 7212014 everyvoice final.pdf)Graphs[ ]1592 Kb
Download this file (dcor PCAF memo 07282014_FINAL.pdf)Memo[ ]376 Kb

 

Battling big money in the Senate battleground with real consequences for 2014

A new poll of the 12 states where control of the Senate is being contested, fielded by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Every Voice, a major new advocacy effort, shows that voters of all political persuasions are disgusted with the current campaign system and are ready for real reform – and they are ready to vote to get it.

Campaign reforms, from a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United to public matching funds for candidates that reject large donations, are widely popular ideas that actually move voters in these critical battleground states during a simulated-debate.
 
In the simulated debate (using the actual candidate names), Democrats supporting a Constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United and a proposal to reduce the influence of big money in campaigns gain a net five points, with the gains concentrated among swing center-right groups.  Clearly, the debate around these issues puts Republicans squarely on the wrong side of public opinion.

Key findings:

  • There is an intensely Anti-Washington mood in the Senate battleground.
     
  • Voters are strongly negative towards Super PACs and believe spending in politics this year is worse than in the past and is very corrupting.

 

  • There is overwhelming cross-partisan support of a Constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United that can translate into added support for Democratic candidates who support the amendment and damage Republicans who oppose it.
     
  • Importantly, there is more than two-to-one support for plans to give public matching funds for small donations to candidates who reject big donations.  Support holds steady after balanced debate on the proposal that accuses the supporters of favoring “welfare for politicians” with taxpayer dollars.
     
  • Republican candidates supporting the RNC lawsuit to eliminate individual contribution limits put themselves in danger of losing support.
     
  • Engaging in a debate about money in politics, when it includes both a push to overturn Citizens United and the matching funds campaign finance proposal, moves the Senate Vote a net 5 points towards Democrats.  

Read the full memo

 
Economic Agenda for Working Women and Men: The Difference in the Senate Battleground?
Tuesday, July 22 2014

Tags: battleground; wvwv

Attachments:
Download this file (dcor bg graphs_Web Version_7212014.pdf)Graphs[ ]1299 Kb
Download this file (Dcorps July Senate BG Web Memo.pdf)Memo[ ]561 Kb
Download this file (DCOR_Senate_Battleground_Web fq_WVWV.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]74 Kb

A new poll of the 12 states where control of the Senate is being contested, fielded by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voice Women Vote Action Fund, shows that control of the Senate rests on a knife’s edge, but that Democrats’ have a powerful weapon in a policy agenda and narrative centered around the needs of working women and men.  This survey, the first to poll in all 12 battleground states using a named ballot, reveals a 44-46 race in states that were won by Mitt Romney by 9 points just 2 years ago. 
 
This survey also shows that Democrats have a way to improve their fortunes.  They are currently being held back by a serious underperformance with unmarried women, who give them just an 11-point advantage on the vote.  But engaging in a populist economic debate and attacks on Republicans with a strong emphasis on women’s issues brings these critical voters back in the fold. It also may be the critical strategy in the open battleground Senate seats. 
 
An “in your shoes” populist narrative about people’s economic struggles, a policy agenda about finally helping mothers in the workplace and making sure those at the top are paying their fair share are issues, and, most important, a critique of Republicans for their polices that hurt seniors and women result in significant gains with unmarried women and other key electoral targets when matched against the Republican agenda and could prove the difference between majority or minority-leader Harry Reid come next January.

Read the full memo

See the graphs

Key findings:

  • Unmarried women are, perhaps, the most important target for Democrats across this senate battleground. 

 

  • The senate race in this battleground is tied and stable, with Democrats held back by underperformance among base RAE voters and unmarried women. 

 

  • The Democratic incumbents in this battleground are much better liked than Obama and have significantly higher ratings than their Republican opponents.  Their approval rating is 6 points above that for the president.

 

  • Two dynamics could shift this race: the president’s approval in these states is just 37 percent, but stable.  Meanwhile, the Republican Party, and particularly the Republicans in the House, is extremely unpopular.  And regressions show that sentiment about House Republicans drives the SENATE vote more strongly than sentiment about Senate Republicans. 

 

  • Democrats have a message that can move the vote.  A populist economic narrative, including strong messaging around the women’s economic agenda, moves the vote in Democrats’ favor when matched against a Republican economic narrative with big gains in the open-seat race and the state that Obama won in 2012. 

 

  • A critique of Republicans for their positions on seniors, women’s economic issues and women’s health are powerful and help move the vote among younger voters and women, as well as help move the vote in some of the most competitive races in the battleground.

 

  • And a debate about money in politics, particularly over a Constitutional Amendment to repeal Citizens United and a proposal to get big money out of our campaign system, results in further gains. 

 

  • Exposing unmarried women to the economic message shifts their support for Senate Democrats from +11 to +20.

 

  • The economic agenda for working women and men includes a cluster of powerful policies on helping working mothers, equal pay and equal health insurance, and making sure that the wealthy and big corporations pay their fair share. 

 

  • Unmarried women are the pivotal group of the debate, as Democrats currently underperform even their 2010 margin significantly, but these voters move strongly in response to the debate. 

 

  • Voters in this Republican-leaning district are split on the electoral impact of the Republican candidate supporting the Hobby Lobby decision, but the issue provides an opening for Democrats to make a powerful critique on Republicans on the issue of women’s health.  The issue is very powerful with unmarried women and other key blocs of women.
 
Next phase in battle for the House battleground
Monday, May 05 2014

Next phase in battle for the House battleground
 

Last week, we released a new survey of the 50 most competitive Republican House seats and the 36 most competitive Democratic House seats and found anti-incumbent sentiment is high and cuts across both parties. Democrats have made important gains on implementing the Affordable Care Act, but the vote remains evenly split in the Democratic battleground. Republican incumbents have edged up  in the most competitive districts this year, but they are below 50 percent, tethered to their unpopular party brand and still vulnerable. 
 
The data tells us that Democratic incumbents and challengers get to their most competitive position by turning to "Speaker John Boehner and his policies that have hurt the economy and done nothing about jobs" and then putting the spotlight on Democrats’ economic agenda, which includes education and the women’s economic agenda.  Such a shift, along with an aggressive effort targeted toward unmarried women, are Democrats’ best strategy for exploiting Republican vulnerabilities and establishing a persuasive dynamic in 2014.

Read our strategy memo here.

 
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