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Battleground Surveys
Revolt Against Congress: Game On
Thursday, December 12 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (120813_DcorpsBG_FQ.pdf)FQ[ ]267 Kb
Download this file (dc bg memo 121213 final.pdf)Memo[ ]713 Kb
Download this file (dcor bg graphs 121213 final.pdf)Graphs[ ]1843 Kb

Key Points:

This poll is in the congressional battleground looking at named incumbents and is virtually the only window into what is really happening.  Appreciate the attention this has gotten.

  • Yes, the health care roll-out and reduced presidential standing has hurt Democrats, but keep it in perspective:

o   Voters evenly divided on this issue; the big debate ends in a draw.  Not a wedge issue.

o   Majority want to implement in Dem districts and plurality in Republican

o   It is hurting the GOP image and re-enforcing that members are part of partisan battle

o   Keeps Republicans on their weakest case for their role

o   Setting up strong Democratic attack on Speaker Boehner’s failure to focus on economy and jobs

o   Gives Democrats opportunity to use to reach affected groups, particularly unmarried women

  • The big structural forces that leave the Tea Party Republican brand deeply tarnished are undiminished:

o   All incumbents damaged but Republicans even more so

o   Republicans at lowest point ever on all key metrics — compared to any prior election

o   Democrats have continuing brand advantage in these districts

o   Want members to work with Obama, not to keep stopping agenda

o   Serious plurality now ready to vote against member because they support Speaker Boehner and the impact on economy and jobs.

  • The vote is stable in the named ballot, but Republicans have weakened in the 2nd tier of less competitive seats — possibly indicative of growing vulnerability
  • Democratic members feeling heat but a touch stronger, a majority want to implement and very positive response to their health care fix messages
  • There is now a singular message framework from this work: “Now is the time to vote out GOP incumbents for supporting Speaker Boehner whose policies have hurt the economy and done nothing about jobs”
  • Two big demographic dynamics that will determine what happens:

o   Seniors.  Republicans trail their challenger among seniors in the Republican districts.

o   Unmarried women.  If they turn out and vote as in 2012 and in Virginia in 2013, Democrats make major gains.  They are underperforming now at 52 percent in Republican districts, but shift 9 points after health care debate and the race overall moves to even.  That puts one-half of these 50 seats really at risk.

  • Women’s economic agenda at the center

 

 
Revolt Against Washington and Corrupted Politics
Thursday, November 07 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (Money in Politics Graph.pdf)Graphs[ ]1231 Kb
Download this file (Money in Politics Memo.pdf)Memo[ ]916 Kb

Partisanship drives most issues these days, but concern over the influence of money-in-politics is one of the few areas with the power to breakthrough the otherwise divisive national conversation in top battleground districts, according to new polling released today by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Campaign Action Fund.


“People of all backgrounds agree that Congress too often works for moneyed interests and against regular people,” said David Donnelly, executive director of Public Campaign Action Fund. “In next year’s most competitive districts, voters will reward politicians – regardless of political party – who take action to reform our broken campaign finance system.”
 
“Nobody likes Washington these days, but one issue that crosses partisan lines is money-in-politics, specifically, how do we fix our broken democracy,” said Stan Greenberg, president of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. “Candidates in these competitive districts should pay attention.”

Key Findings:

  • This is an intensely anti-Washington period.  Voters’ optimism about the country direction and about their leaders in Washington has plummeted amid the backdrop of almost total dysfunction.  Voters are angry with the Congress at the center of the storm.

 

  •  Voters do not believe that either party is capable of cleaning up the mess in Washington.    When asked which party would do a better job “cleaning up the mess in Washington,” one in three battleground voters (28 percent) say neither—a striking number for a volunteered answer (an option not offered to respondents).  This creates a clear opening for those willing to run against the current system.

 

  • There are opportunities for both Democrats and Republicans to seize on reform. Voters believe Democrats are better than Republicans at “putting the people’s interests ahead of big moneyed interests,” but Republicans could set themselves apart from increasingly unpopular Congressional leadership.

 

  • There is no downside for either party to grab onto this issue and make it central to their campaigns.   Voters register almost no negative response to reform efforts—even those that would require significant public contributions to political campaigns.

 

  • And they strongly support serious and bold reforms.  A plan to replace the current system with one in which candidates would receive small donations with matched public funding receives broad support across districts.  And some of the strongest supporters are swing voters—the ones both parties will target in their campaigns next fall.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted a national survey of a unique survey of 1,250 likely 2014 voters in the most competitive Democratic and Republican Congressional districts in the country from October 19-24, 2013. For questions asked of all respondents, the margin of error = +/- 2.77% at 95% confidence. For questions asked just in Republican districts, the margin of error = +/- 3.58% at 95% confidence.  For questions asked in just Democratic districts, the margin of error = +/- 4.38% at 95% confidence.

READ THE FULL MEMO HERE

 

 
Revolt Against Washington and the Republican Congress
Wednesday, October 30 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (102413_DCORPS_Battleground_fq.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]133 Kb
Download this file (dcor bg graphs 102413 v5.pdf)Graphs[ ]1560 Kb
Download this file (dcor bg memo 102813 final1.pdf)Memo[ ]1148 Kb

The most recent Democracy Corps Congressional Battleground survey, fielded just two days after Congress ended the government shutdown, reveals a nation angry with Washington, the country’s direction, and congressional incumbents.[1]   While voters withhold anger for no party or person in Washington, Speaker Boehner and the Republican Congress are at the center and have taken the hardest hits from voters.  While the actual named vote for Congress has not yet moved, everything else has moved against the Republican members.

Read more... [Revolt Against Washington and the Republican Congress]
 
Seniors could decide this election
Tuesday, October 29 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (Battleground Frequency Questionnaire 102913.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]125 Kb

When all the dust is settled in the off-year elections, we may decide it was seniors who gave the Democrats their chance for a comeback.  We have flagged this growing trend before, but the pattern is now too consistent to ignore.  When Republicans swept Democrats in the 2010 off-year elections, they won seniors by 21 points.  Repeat, 21 points.  They lost white seniors by 24 points.  Just this past November, Republicans won seniors by 12 points in the vote for Congress. 

We will be releasing on Wednesday our congressional battleground poll – in the 49 most competitive Republican districts and 24 most competitive Democratic seats. When we do, pay attention to the seniors.  In the Republican battleground, the vote is tied among seniors and the Democratic candidate has gained 5 points among this group since June.  In the Democratic battleground, Democratic incumbents lead by 14 points among seniors and by 9 points (48 percent to 39 percent)among white seniors.

This is not unique to the battleground.  It reflects the results we have seen in all Democracy Corps’ national polls this year.  In the latest national conducted with Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, a Republican candidate for Congress leads by just 6 points (49 percent to 43 percent) among seniors, well below the GOP’s 21-point margin in the 2010 and 12-point margin in 2012 elections.

With seniors some of the most immediate beneficiaries of The Affordable Care Act, President Obama no longer on the ballot, and with Republicans seeking to make Medicare and Medicaid cuts, it is possible seniors are moving to a new place. 

 
Engaging confidently on health care reform
Tuesday, August 06 2013
Attachments:
Download this file (dcor.bg.hc.memo.080613.final.pdf)Memo[ ]594 Kb

Republicans will run on health care reform in 2014 and 2016, so get used to it. But do not believe that it will give them a better chance of securing their seats or the best shot at putting competitive Democratic seats in danger.  Democrats in the most rural and the strongest Romney seats will have to be inventive as usual, but Democrats have a lot to say on health care: fix it, don’t repeal it, don’t put the insurance companies back in charge and take your hands off Medicare.

Read more... [Engaging confidently on health care reform]
 
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