Most Popular

April 15, 2014

The Urgent Economic Narrative for...

  The economy is still the main issue in the 2014 election, impacting the mood of the country, driving likely voter turnout, and defining what...
May 05, 2014

Next phase in battle for the House...

Next phase in battle for the House battleground   Last week, we released a new survey of the 50 most competitive Republican House seats and...
April 04, 2014

Tipping Point on 2014 and The...

Report on national survey of 2014 electorate Whether we are at a tipping point in the 2014 election depends, first, on whether Democrats can get to...

James Carville and Stan Greenberg: The big things that Obama can get done at his convention
Tuesday, September 04 2012
Download this file (dcor.ecnp.ealert.graphs.090312.v1.pdf)Graphs[ ]1216 Kb
Download this file (dcor.ecnp.fq.082812.web.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]177 Kb
Download this file ([ ]392 Kb

This is a close presidential race where President Obama and the Democrats still need a good convention to get momentum and define the choice in the election to lock in their 3- or 4-point lead.  In our view, that is very likely.

The reason why we think it is important to have a good convention is that the real economy is so difficult that it gives Romney and the Republicans an audience on spending and budgets, even when the country views them with disdain.  In the survey we conducted just before the Republican convention, Obama maintained a 2-point lead.  But because Republican-leaning independents pay more attention in this period and are a larger portion of the national survey, the survey results are tough: the President fell to 6 points behind Romney and Democrats 9 points behind Republicans on who would do a better job on the economy.  That poll shows people struggling in their personal economies, which were weakening further, even as there was more churning in the job market.   As a result, the president was barely winning big economic arguments in the survey.


Read more... [James Carville and Stan Greenberg: The big things that Obama can get done at his convention]
<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >>

Page 8 of 32