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James Carville and Stan Greenberg: The big things that Obama can get done at his convention
Tuesday, September 04 2012
Download this file (dcor.ecnp.ealert.graphs.090312.v1.pdf)Graphs[ ]1216 Kb
Download this file (dcor.ecnp.fq.082812.web.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]177 Kb
Download this file ([ ]392 Kb

This is a close presidential race where President Obama and the Democrats still need a good convention to get momentum and define the choice in the election to lock in their 3- or 4-point lead.  In our view, that is very likely.

The reason why we think it is important to have a good convention is that the real economy is so difficult that it gives Romney and the Republicans an audience on spending and budgets, even when the country views them with disdain.  In the survey we conducted just before the Republican convention, Obama maintained a 2-point lead.  But because Republican-leaning independents pay more attention in this period and are a larger portion of the national survey, the survey results are tough: the President fell to 6 points behind Romney and Democrats 9 points behind Republicans on who would do a better job on the economy.  That poll shows people struggling in their personal economies, which were weakening further, even as there was more churning in the job market.   As a result, the president was barely winning big economic arguments in the survey.


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