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Corzine Carries Four-Point Lead Into Election Day
Monday, November 02 2009

Tags: christie | corzine | daggett | democracy corps | Democrats | new jersey | Republican Party

Attachments:
Access this URL (http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/NJ-Gov-Poll-Memo-110209-FINAL.pdf)Memo[ ]29 Kb
Access this URL (http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/njsw110109bbk8.web.pdf)Banner Book[ ]482 Kb
Access this URL (http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/njsw110109fq8.web.pdf)Frequency Questionnaire[ ]25 Kb

A new survey conducted for Stan Greenberg and James Carville's organization Democracy Corps shows a New Jersey gubernatorial race that remains very close, with Democratic Governor Jon Corzine holding a four-point edge over Republican Chris Christie among the electorate most likely to turn out on Election Day. Corzine leads Christie 41 percent to 37 percent among these voters, with independent Chris Daggett receiving 15 percent of the vote. Among a higher-turnout electorate, Corzine leads Christie 41 percent to 36 percent. When Daggett voters are pushed to choose one of the two major party candidates, Corzine leads 47 to 41 percent.

There is a significant bloc of 8 percent of the electorate that remains undecided, which can still have an impact on the final margin in the race, especially considering the anti-incumbent mood in New Jersey and across the country. Voters continue to have negative perceptions of all three candidates.  Corzine and Christie both have net favorability ratings of -8 points--”39 to 47 percent favorable-unfavorable and 35 to 43 percent favorable-unfavorable, respectively”--while Daggett's negatives are double his positives (16 to 32 percent favorable-unfavorable).

These results are based on a Democracy Corps survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner from October 29 - November 1, 2009 among 606 likely voters in New Jersey. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percent.

You can find this release as well as the full survey results at http://www.democracycorps.com/. Democracy Corps is an independent, non-profit organization dedicated to making the government of the United States more responsive to the American people. It was founded in 1999 by James Carville and Stanley Greenberg. Democracy Corps provides free public opinion research and strategic advice to those dedicated to a more responsive Congress and Presidency.


[1] In previous surveys, we have reported the higher-turnout figure.